IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arjebs/v6y2014i5p363-372.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Onneetse L Sikalao-Lekobane

Abstract

The ability of the stock market to reflect real economic activities through fundamental macroeconomic variables in emerging markets remains paramount considering the role of stock markets in the financial system. This paper explores the long-term equilibrium relationship between the Botswana stock market price and selected domestic and global macroeconomic variables using quarterly data for the period 1998 to 2012. The selected macroeconomic variables included Gross Domestic Product (GDP), long and short-term interest rates, money supply, foreign reserves, inflation, diamond price index, exchange rate, US share price index and 10 Year US government bond yield. The paper employs VECM framework following Johansen’s cointegration technique. The analysis revealed that macroeconomic variables and the stock market price are cointegrated, hence, a long-run equilibrium relationship existed between them. The results showed that in the long run, real GDP, short-term interest rates, inflation and diamond index are positively related with stock market price. However, long-term real interest rate, money supply, foreign reserves, exchange rate, US share price index and US government bond yield are negatively related with stock market price in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Onneetse L Sikalao-Lekobane, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(5), pages 363-372.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:6:y:2014:i:5:p:363-372
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v6i5.499
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/499/499
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/499
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22610/jebs.v6i5.499?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ritter, Jay R., 2005. "Economic growth and equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 489-503, November.
    2. K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
    3. Rajarshi Mitra, 2013. "Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Test for Cambodia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(2), pages 117-121.
    4. Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-245, April.
    5. Floros, C., 2004. "Stock Returns and Inflation in Greece," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2).
    6. Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 257-300.
    7. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    9. Renneboog, Luc & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2012. "Hard assets: The returns on rare diamonds and gems," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 220-230.
    10. Mansor Ibrahim, 2003. "Macroeconomic forces and capital market integration A VAR analysis for Malaysia," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 19-40.
    11. Glen, Jack, 2002. "Devaluations and emerging stock market returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 409-428, December.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    13. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2959-3004, December.
    14. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    15. Jyoti Kumari, 2011. "Stock Returns and Inflation in India: An Empirical Analysis," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 39-75, May.
    16. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
    17. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    18. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
    19. Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
    20. Debora L. Spar, 2006. "Markets: Continuity and Change in the International Diamond Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 195-208, Summer.
    21. Orawan Ratanapakorn & Subhash Sharma, 2007. "Dynamic analysis between the US stock returns and the macroeconomic variables," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 369-377.
    22. Vihang Errunza & Ked Hogan, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of European Stock Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(3), pages 361-377, November.
    23. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    25. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    26. Spyros Spyrou, 2001. "Stock returns and inflation: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 447-450.
    27. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    28. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    29. S. I. Spyrou, 2004. "Are stocks a good hedge against inflation? evidence from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 41-48.
    30. Fifield, S G M & Power, D M & Sinclair, C D, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors and Share Returns: An Analysis Using Emerging Market Data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 51-62, January.
    31. Mookerjee, Rajen & Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Macroeconomic variables and stock prices in a small open economy: The case of Singapore," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 377-388, July.
    32. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    33. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    34. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    35. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    36. Mansor H. Ibrahim and Wan Sulaiman Wan Yusoff, 2001. "Macroeconomic Variables, Exchange Rate And Stock Price: A Malaysian Perspective," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 9(2), pages 141-164, December.
    37. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    38. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    39. Yu Hsing, 2011. "The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 12-18.
    40. Nicole Davis & Ali Kutan, 2003. "Inflation and output as predictors of stock returns and volatility: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 693-700.
    41. Maysami, Ramin Cooper & Koh, Tiong Sim, 2000. "A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-96, February.
    42. Osamah M. Al-Khazali & Chong Soo Pyun, 2004. "Stock Prices and Inflation: New Evidence from the Pacific-Basin Countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 123-140, March.
    43. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2009. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 111-119.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    2. Miklesh Prasad Yadav & Aastha Khera & Nandita Mishra, 2022. "Empirical Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market: Evidence from India," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 47(1), pages 119-129, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    2. Ditimi Amassoma & O. Adeleke, 2018. "Testing for the Causality between Interest Rate and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 109-124.
    3. Bhuiyan, Erfan M. & Chowdhury, Murshed, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: Asymmetric dynamics in the US and Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 62-74.
    4. Gupta, Rakesh & Yuan, Tian & Roca, Eduardo, 2016. "Linkages between the ADR market and home country macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence in the context of the BRICs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 230-239.
    5. Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2011. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and net asset values (NAV) of equity funds: Cointegration evidence and vector error correction model of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds (MPFs)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 792-810.
    6. Kishor K. Guru-Gharana & Matiur Rahman & Anisul M. Islam, 2021. "Japan s Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Toda-Yamamoto and Dolado-Lutkepohl Tests for Multivariate Granger Causality," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 107-122.
    7. Abbas Ghulam & Wang Shouyang & Bhowmik Roni & Koju Laxmi, 2017. "Cointegration and Causality Relationship Between Stock Market, Money Market and Foreign Exchange Market in Pakistan," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Mohammad Joarder & Monir Ahmed & Tahsina Haque & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2014. "An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, February.
    9. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2009. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 111-119.
    11. Kabir, Sarkar Humayun & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Dynamic Integration of Domestic Equity Price, Foreign Equity Price and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 57007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    13. K. Latha & Sunita Gupta & Arnav Kumar, 2016. "Relationship between Indian Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Financial Markets, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 109-121.
    14. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables on the emerging stock indices: A quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1006-1024, January.
    15. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2013. "A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model of the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 38-51, October.
    16. Al-Sharkas, A.A., 2004. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Factors and the Jordanian Stock Market," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 97-114.
    17. Asmy, Mohamed & Rohilina, Wisam & Hassama, Aris & Fouad, Md., 2009. "Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Approach of Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 20970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ahmad Hamidi, Hakimah Nur & Khalid, Norlin & Abdul Karim, Zulkefly, 2018. "Revisiting Relationship Between Malaysian Stock Market Index and Selected Macroeconomic Variables Using Asymmetric Cointegration," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 311-319.
    19. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," MPRA Paper 46528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Pooja Joshi & A. K. Giri, 2015. "Cointegration and Causality between Macroeconomic variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Analysis from Indian Economy," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 327-345, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:6:y:2014:i:5:p:363-372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Tayyab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.