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Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia

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  • K. Chaudhuri
  • S. Smiles

Abstract

Using the multivariate cointegration methodology, this article documents the evidence of long-run relationships between real stock price and measures of aggregate real activity including real GDP, real private consumption, real money and the real price of oil in the Australian market. Real stock return in Australia is related to temporary departures from the long-run relationship and to changes in real macroeconomic activity. The results also document that the information provided by the cointegration contain some additional information that is not already present in other sources of return variation such as term spread, future GDP growth or shocks to term spread. On the other hand, the influence of other markets, especially stock return variation in the US and New Zealand markets, significantly affects Australian stock return movements.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 121-129

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:2:p:121-129

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mohammad Joarder & Monir Ahmed & Tahsina Haque & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2014. "An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, February.
  2. Chris Heaton & George Milunovich & Anthony Passé‐De Silva, 2011. "International Commodity Prices and the Australian Stock Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 37-44, March.
  3. Asmy, Mohamed & Rohilina, Wisam & Hassama, Aris & Fouad, Md., 2009. "Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Approach of Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 20970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Yu Hsing, 2011. "The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 12-18.
  5. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  6. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
  7. Yu Hsing, 2011. "Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Market: the Case of Lithuania," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 3(1), pages 031-037, June.
  8. Andreas Humpe & Peter D. Macmillan, 2005. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0511, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
  9. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," MPRA Paper 46528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ratti, Ronald A. & Hasan, M. Zahid, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns ‎," MPRA Paper 49043, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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