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Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia

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Author Info
K. Chaudhuri
S. Smiles

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Abstract

Using the multivariate cointegration methodology, this article documents the evidence of long-run relationships between real stock price and measures of aggregate real activity including real GDP, real private consumption, real money and the real price of oil in the Australian market. Real stock return in Australia is related to temporary departures from the long-run relationship and to changes in real macroeconomic activity. The results also document that the information provided by the cointegration contain some additional information that is not already present in other sources of return variation such as term spread, future GDP growth or shocks to term spread. On the other hand, the influence of other markets, especially stock return variation in the US and New Zealand markets, significantly affects Australian stock return movements.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
Pages: 121-129
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:2:p:121-129

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Humpe & Peter D. Macmillan, 2005. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0511, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. " Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 0720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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