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Stock Prices and Inflation: New Evidence from the Pacific-Basin Countries

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  • Osamah M. Al-Khazali

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  • Chong Soo Pyun

    ()

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the statistical relationship between stock prices and inflation in nine countries in the Pacific-Basin. On balance, regression analysis on the nine markets shows negative relationships between stock returns in real terms and inflation in the short run, while co-integration tests on the same markets display a positive relationship between the same variables over the long run. The time path of the response of stock prices plotted against corresponding changes in consumer price indices validates this dichotomy in time-related response patterns of stock prices to inflation; namely, a blip of negative responses at the beginning changes to a positive response over a longer period of time. Stock prices in Asia, like those in the U.S. and Europe, appear to reflect a time-varying memory associated with inflation shocks that make stock portfolios a reasonably good hedge against inflation in the long run.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 2 (03)
    Pages: 123-140

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:22:y:2004:i:2:p:123-140

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    Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102990

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    Cited by:
    1. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Can Common Stocks Provide A Hedge Against Inflation? Evidence from African Countries," Working Paper Series 06_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    3. Quayes, Shakil, 2010. "Does budget deficit lower equity prices in USA?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 155-157, May.
    4. Asmy, Mohamed & Rohilina, Wisam & Hassama, Aris & Fouad, Md., 2009. "Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Malaysia: An Approach of Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 20970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rushdi, Mustabshira & Kim, Jae H. & Silvapulle, Param, 2012. "ARDL bounds tests and robust inference for the long run relationship between real stock returns and inflation in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 535-543.

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