IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2023i3p40-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: A Markov-Switching VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Deniz AYTAÇ

    (Hitit University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Public Finance. Corresponding author.)

Abstract

Economies are under the influence of global macroeconomic variables as well as national macroeconomic variables. In this context, global economic policy uncertainties are used as an important variable. The relationship between economic uncertainties and energy prices in the literature is examined over oil prices, and natural resources such as coal and natural gas, which have a significant share in world energy consumption, are rarely discussed. In this study, the relationship between the global economic policy uncertainty index and the prices of fossil fuels coal, natural gas, and oil as natural resources has been examined with the Markov Switching VAR Model. The model used enables the analysis of uncertainty and energy prices variables, which are directly affected by the expansion and recession periods of the world economy, under different regimes. As a result of the model application, it has been concluded that there is an asymmetrical relationship between global economic policy uncertainties and oil, coal, and natural gas prices, especially during the expansion periods of the global economy, and that the 1 standard deviation shock in all energy prices is explained by the global economic policy uncertainty index by approximately 50%.

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz AYTAÇ, 2023. "Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: A Markov-Switching VAR Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 40-61, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:3:p:40-61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_2023/rjef3_2023p40-61.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    2. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    3. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Ian Wright & Jose Maria Barrero, 2016. "Short- and Long-run Uncertainty," 2016 Meeting Papers 1576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    7. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    8. Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 189-200.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    10. Ine Van Robays, 2016. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Oil Price Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 671-693, October.
    11. Khandokar Istiak & Md Rafayet Alam, 2019. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and asymmetries in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(2), pages 324-334, March.
    12. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    13. Byeongju Jeong, 2002. "Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Investment and Output across Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 363-392, May.
    14. Liu, Feng & Shao, Shuai & Li, Xin & Pan, Na & Qi, Yu, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, jump dynamics, and oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Vichet Sum, 2013. "The ASEAN Stock Market Performance and Economic Policy Uncertainty in the United States," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(4), pages 512-521, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Huang, Yi & Loungani, Prakash, 2018. "Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 314-330.
    3. Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Xiuwen & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Multi-scale interactions between economic policy uncertainty and oil prices in time-frequency domains," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    5. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    6. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    7. Jun Wen & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood & Xiuyun Yang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and growth nexus in Pakistan: a new evidence using NARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1701-1715, August.
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Zhou, Kexuan & Kumar, Sanjay & Yu, Linhui & Jiang, Xinlin, 2021. "The economic policy uncertainty and the choice of entry mode of outward foreign direct investment: Cross-border M&A or Greenfield Investment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Dimitrios Bakas & Marilou Ioakimidis, 2023. "Commodity price uncertainty as a leading indicator of economic activity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4194-4219, October.
    12. Eksi, Ozan & Onur Tas, Bedri Kamil, 2022. "Time-varying effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 10463, CESifo.
    14. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    15. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    16. Idriss Fontaine, 2017. "This paper investigates whether the effects of uncertainty shocks on the French economy are heterogeneous. By exploiting two different measures of uncertainty, one reflecting policy uncertainty and an," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2835-2845.
    17. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Freund, Lukas B. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2021. "Volatile hiring: uncertainty in search and matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-18.
    18. Barraza, Santiago & Civelli, Andrea, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the supply of business loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Gigout, Timothee, 2019. "Firm dynamics in an global and uncertain economy," MPRA Paper 96569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    20. Yu, Jian & Shi, Xunpeng & Guo, Dongmei & Yang, Longjian, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm carbon emissions: Evidence using a China provincial EPU index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    21. Choi Sangyup & Yoon Chansik, 2022. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 397-434, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GEPU; Oil Prices; Coal Prices; Natural Gas Prices; MS-VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:3:p:40-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.