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Compositional Analysis Of Foreign Currency Reserves In The 1999-2007 Period. The Euro Vs. The Dollar As Leading Reserve Currency

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  • Aristovnik, Aleksander

    () (International and Public Sector Economics at the University of Ljubljana (Faculty of Administration and Faculty of Economics))

  • Čeč, Tanja

    () (University of Ljubljana (Faculty of Economics))

Abstract

Using a critical analysis of the acquired data, this article mainly aims to present the currency composition of the foreign currency reserves of central banks in selected countries in the 1999-2007 period and, on this basis, to establish whether the euro stands any real chances of dethroning the US dollar as the global currency. Among other things, the empirical results, for the most part overlapping with the theoretical and empirical expectations, confirm the hypothesis that in the near future the euro may be regarded as a global reserve currency on a par with the US dollar or it may even become the leading reserve currency. Finally, the empirical analysis also shows that the proportion of the euro in foreign currency reserves differs by the groups of countries concerned; however, in the period under scrutiny it was mainly increasing.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 165-181

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:1:p:165-181

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Keywords: international monetary system; international currency; foreign currency reserves; dollar; euro;

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  1. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes & Gregorios Siourounis, 2006. "Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 12333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Philip D Wooldridge, 2006. "The changing composition of official reserves," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  3. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2006. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar As Leading International Reserve Currency?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4hz4n9pb, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Working Papers 11563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert Mundell, 1998. "What the euro means for the dollar and the international Monetary system," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 227-237, September.
  6. Gabriele Galati & Philip Wooldridge, 2009. "The euro as a reserve currency: a challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-23.
  7. Masson, Paul R., 2008. "The euro and developing country finance: A survey," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 175-191, August.
  8. Johannes Onno de Beaufort Wijnholds & Lars Søndergaard, 2007. "Reserve accumulation - objective or by-product?," Occasional Paper Series 73, European Central Bank.
  9. Wyplosz, Charles (ed.), 2001. "The Impact of EMU on Europe and the Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245314, September.
  10. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2006. "The Euro's Challenge to the Dollar: Different Views from Economists and Evidence from COFER (Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) and Other Data," IMF Working Papers 06/153, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Srichander Ramaswamy, 1999. "Reserve currency allocation: an alternative methodology," BIS Working Papers 72, Bank for International Settlements.
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