External Debt Sustainability Analysis for the Medium Term: A Case Study
AbstractThis paper estimates Pakistan’s’ external debt by using Debt Sustainability Assessment (DSA) methodology developed by IMF and World Bank [IDA and IMF (2004, 2007), IMF (2005) and World Bank (2005)]. The main findings of the paper are that in response to small individual shocks to main components of external debt evolution i.e., real GDP growth, non-interest current account balance to GDP ratio and the ratio of net non-debt creating capital inflows to GDP, country’s external debt to GDP ratio will although increase, but would remain within safe limits. Secondly a very large depreciation of the exchange rate has the potential of causing the debt to GDP ratio to breach the debt threshold level indentified for Pakistan. Finally, a large combined shock to real GDP growth, non-interest current account balance to GDP ratio and the ratio of net non-debt creating capital inflows to GDP can also result in a need of another debt rescheduling for the country.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internatzionale / International Economics.
Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Garibaldi 4, 16124 Genova, Italy
Phone: +39 010 27041
Fax: +39 010 2704222
Web page: http://www.ge.camcom.it/IT/Tool/Modulistica
More information through EDIRC
External Debt; Sustainability; Pakistan;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rizwana Siddiqui & Rehana Siddiqui, 2001. "Determinants of Debt Rescheduling in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 689-704.
- Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004.
"A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data,"
Textos para discussÃ£o
484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kamau Thugge & Anthony R. Boote, 1997. "Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries and the HIPC Initiative," IMF Working Papers 97/24, International Monetary Fund.
- E. H. Gardner & Julian di Giovanni, 2008. "A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 08/97, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
- Alfred Greiner & Uwe Koeller & Willi Semmler, 2005. "Testing Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy. Evidence for the Period 1960 – 2003," CESifo Working Paper Series 1386, CESifo Group Munich.
- Philippe D Karam & Doug Hostland, 2005.
"Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods,"
IMF Working Papers
05/226, International Monetary Fund.
- Hostland, Doug & Karam, Philippe, 2006. "Assessing debt sustainability in emerging market economies using stochastic simulation methods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3821, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angela Procopio).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.