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Comparison of VaR estimation methods for different forecasting samples for Russian stocks

Author

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  • Shcherba, Alexandr

    (Gazprombank, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper aims at finding the most accurate VaR model for the four most liquid Russian stocks. Among the possible VaR modeling techniques, the estimates considered in this work are based on GARCH models with six different distributions. A back testing analysis is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the alternative models and to find the worst predictable period in terms of the volatility behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Shcherba, Alexandr, 2011. "Comparison of VaR estimation methods for different forecasting samples for Russian stocks," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 24(4), pages 58-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0102
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VaR; GARCH; market risk; back testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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