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Déplacements domicile-travail en Île-de-France et choix individuels du mode de transport

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  • De Lapparent, Matthieu

    (EUREQua)

Abstract

We develop in this paper a dichotomous discrete choice model for the analysis of home to work trips in the French Parisian region. The two modes of transportation are private motorized vehicle and public transportation. We analyse indirect effects coming from the other choices associated with the demand for travel. We also take into account random tastes of travellers. A mixed Logit model is formulated. Identification of the parameters and estimation by maximization of the simulated likelihood function are discussed. The results of the application are realistic and intuitive: tastes for travel attributes are heterogeneous among the population, so are the effects of their socioeconomic variables, the correlation of the value of time with the level of road congestion is positive and the IIA axiom does not hold. Nous étudions dans cet article le choix du mode de transport pour un déplacement domicile-travail au sein de la région Île-de-France dans un ensemble à deux modalités : véhicule particulier ou transports en commun. Nous modélisons la présence d’effets indirects liés aux autres dimensions de la demande de transport et l’existence d’hétérogénéité des goûts dans la population observée. Nous spécifions, identifions et estimons par la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance simulée un modèle Logit à paramètres aléatoires. Les résultats sont nombreux et réalistes : dispersion des goûts concernant les attributs de transports et les variables socio-économiques, corrélation positive entre valeur du temps et niveau de la congestion, rejet de l’axiome IIA.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 81 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (Septembre)
Pages: 485-520

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:81:y:2005:i:3:p:485-520

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  1. A. de Palma & A. J. Khattak & D. Gupta, 1997. "Commuters' departure time decisions in Brussels," THEMA Working Papers 97-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  2. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
  3. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
  4. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
  5. Small, Kenneth A. & Gomez-Ibanez, Jose A., 1999. "Urban transportation," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 1937-1999 Elsevier.
  6. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
  7. Kenneth E. Train, 1998. "Recreation Demand Models with Taste Differences over People," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 74(2), pages 230-239.
  8. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
  9. V. Medvedev, 1992. "Economic Theory," Problems of Economic Transition, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 35(7), pages 55-73, November.
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