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Incertidumbre, gobernabilidad y crecimiento económico. Venezuela 1968-2010

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  • Carlos José Peña Parra

Abstract

Este trabajo examina la relación entre incertidumbre macroeconómica, gobernabilidad fiscal y crecimiento económico en Venezuela entre 1968 y 2010. Existe una retroalimentación entre incertidumbre y volatilidad fiscal, pero esta última puede ser producto de una gobernabilidad débil, en particular de una política fiscal muy volátil. La volatilidad fiscal afecta los resultados fiscales, sobre todo cuando la política fiscal es discrecional. Para examinar la relación mencionada se utiliza un modelo de vectores autorregresivos.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos José Peña Parra, 2013. "Incertidumbre, gobernabilidad y crecimiento económico. Venezuela 1968-2010," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(28), pages 313-331, January-J.
    • Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:15:y:2013:i:28:p:313-331
    as

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    File URL: http://www.uexternado.edu.co/facecono/ecoinstitucional/workingpapers/cpena28.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    incertidumbre; inversión; crecimiento; gobernabilidad; volatilidad fiscal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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