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Les ménages arbitrent-ils entre coût du logement et coût du transport ? Une réponse dans le cas francilien

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  • Nicolas Coulombel
  • Fabien Leurent

Abstract

[fre] En Île-de-France, le niveau élevé des prix immobiliers se traduit par une part du revenu consacrée au logement plus grande qu'en province. Dans ce contexte, la hausse du prix des carburants pourrait peser sur la solvabilité des ménages. Plusieurs auteurs soutiennent que ce risque est accentué dans les zones périurbaines et rurales. L'éloignement de Paris induirait des coûts de transport importants venant s'ajouter à un budget logement déjà élevé. Or le modèle monocentrique de l'économie urbaine vient sinon contredire du moins nuancer cette affirmation. Ce modèle prédit une fongibilité des budgets transport et logement, de partielle à totale selon les hypothèses retenues. Les coûts de transport élevés dans les zones excentrées seraient donc compensés par un plus faible budget logement. Cette étude teste les prédictions du modèle monocentrique concernant la fongibilité des budgets logement et transport dans le cas des ménages franciliens. Les informations présentes dans l'Enquête globale de transport 2001-2002 permettent de développer un test économétrique simple (significativité de la variable de coût de transport dans l'équation de dépense de logement), mais inédit à ce jour. À statut d'occupation donné, le revenu constitue le principal déterminant du budget logement, les autres caractéristiques du ménage ayant un impact secondaire. Les différentes variables de coût de transport testées sont non significatives ou d'influence marginale. En particulier, l'élasticité du budget logement au budget transport est nulle pour les ménages accédants à la propriété et locataires du secteur privé, et faiblement positive (0,025) dans le secteur social. Ces résultats amènent à rejeter l'hypothèse d'un arbitrage entre coût du logement et coût du transport. De manière annexe, l'étude trouve un lien positif entre dépense de logement et prix au m2. Ceci remet en question le choix fréquent de fonctions d'utilité Cobb-Douglas pour modéliser les préférences résidentielles des ménages.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Coulombel & Fabien Leurent, 2012. "Les ménages arbitrent-ils entre coût du logement et coût du transport ? Une réponse dans le cas francilien," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 457(1), pages 57-75.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2012_num_457_1_9964
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2012.9964
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2012.9964
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurent Gobillon, 2001. "Emploi, logement et mobilité résidentielle," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 349(1), pages 77-98.
    2. Henderson, J Vernon & Ionnides, Yannis M, 1986. "Tenure Choice and the Demand for Housing," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210), pages 231-246, May.
    3. Goodman, Allen C., 1990. "Demographics of individual housing demand," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-102, June.
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    1. Denis Anne, 2019. "Aides à la mobilité et insertion sociale," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph19-03 edited by Yannick L'Horty, February.
    2. Sabina Buczkowska & Nicolas Coulombel & Matthieu Lapparent, 2019. "A comparison of Euclidean Distance, Travel Times, and Network Distances in Location Choice Mixture Models," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1215-1248, December.
    3. Coulombel, Nicolas, 2018. "Why housing and transport costs should always be considered together: A monocentric analysis of prudential measures in housing access," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 89-105.
    4. Belton Chevallier, Leslie & Motte-Baumvol, Benjamin & Fol, Sylvie & Jouffe, Yves, 2018. "Coping with the costs of car dependency: A system of expedients used by low-income households on the outskirts of Dijon and Paris," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 79-88.

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