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Dynamic Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in the Major East European Economies

Author

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  • Dejan Živkov
  • Jovan Njegić
  • Vera Mirović

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between stock returns and exchange rate in four East European emerging markets. Due to persistent long memory and the presence of the asymmetric effect in all asset markets we applied DCC-FIAPARCH model. The estimated negative DCC parameters in all scrutinized countries confirmed that portfolio-balanced theory has predominance in the short run in all selected economies. DCC parameters revealed significant time-varying behaviour, especially during the major crisis periods. By embedding dummy variables in the variance equations, we came to the conclusion that global shocks affect the volatility of DCCs. Particularly, it happened during the Global Financial Crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, but the effects were not linearly equal in all countries. Complementary rolling analysis unveils how conditional volatilities of analysed assets influence DCC. The results suggested that exchange rate conditional volatility has higher influence on DCC than stock conditional volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegić & Vera Mirović, 2016. "Dynamic Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in the Major East European Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(6), pages 686-705.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2016:y:2016:i:6:id:591:p:686-705
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.591
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    Cited by:

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    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 138-149.
    4. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:669:p:1-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Nnenna Ogbonnaya‐Orji, 2022. "A firm level analysis of asymmetric response of U.S. stock returns to exchange rate movements," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1220-1239, January.
    6. Jelena Andrasic & Nada Milenkovic & Kristina Mijic & Vera Mirovic & Branimir Kalas, 2018. "The Impact of Acquisitions on Profitability: Evidence from the Banking Sector in Serbia," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 83-99.
    7. Dejan Zivkov & Suzana Balaban & Jasmina Djuraskovic, 2018. "What Multiscale Approach Can Tell About the Nexus Between Exchange Rate and Stocks in the Major Emerging Markets?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(5), pages 491-512, October.
    8. Jovan Njegić & Dejan Živkov & Irena Janković, 2018. "Interrelationship and Spillover Effect between Stock and Exchange Rate Markets in the Major Emerging Economies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 270-292.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; stocks; DCC-FIAPARCH; structural breaks; East European countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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