Testing Wagner´s Law for Turkey: Evidence from a Trivariate Causality Analysis
AbstractThe purpose of this study is to analyse the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Turkey. The study tests the validity of Wagner´s law by applying autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique using annual data over 1950-2010 period. In order to find out the possible impact of omitted variables, we first tested the standard bivariate versions of Wagner´s law. In the next step by including a third variable – inflation ratio - the analysis extended on a trivariate system. The findings of each testing procedure indicate that omitted variables matter. Since, while there exists no long-run relationship between the variables in the first step of the testing procedure, a long-run correlation is found in the second step. The differences of this paper from the earlier studies testing the Law for Turkey are that, the causal link is examined within a trivariate framework and non-interest government expenditure is considered instead of total government expenditures.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 2013 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Postal: Editorial office Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sinha, Dipendra, 2007. "Does the Wagner’s Law hold for Thailand? A Time Series Study," MPRA Paper 2560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
- Lin, Chi-ang, 1998. "'Structural' Wagner's Law and Institutional Dynamics: An Evolutionary Perspective," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 53(2), pages 175-94.
- Singh, Balvir & Sahni, Balbir S, 1984. "Causality between Public Expenditure and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(4), pages 630-44, November.
- John Loizides & George Vamvoukas, 2005. "Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 125-152, May.
- Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1998. "An empirical analysis of South Korea's economic development and public expenditures growth," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 687-700.
- Ashworth, John, 1994. "Spurious in Mexico: A Comment on Wagner's Law," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 49(2), pages 282-86.
- İhsan GÜNAYDIN, 2000. "Türkiye İçin Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezlerinin Testi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 15(175), pages 70-86.
- Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, octubre-d.
- Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2009.
"Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality tests for New Zealand,"
0917, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
- Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2012. "Wagner's Law revisited: cointegration and causality tests for New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 607-616, February.
- Hayo, Bernd, 1994. "No Further Evidence of Wagner's Law for Mexico," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 49(2), pages 287-94.
- Ram, Rati, 1986. "Causality between Income and Government Expenditure: A Broad International Perspective," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 41(3), pages 393-414.
- Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2002. "A Multivariate Approach to the Growth of Governments," Public Finance Review, , vol. 30(1), pages 56-76, January.
- Nikolaos Dritsakis & Antonis Adamopoulos, 2004. "A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 457-464.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-15.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vaclav Subrta).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.