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Probabilistic population aging

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  • Warren C Sanderson
  • Sergei Scherbov
  • Patrick Gerland

Abstract

We merge two methodologies, prospective measures of population aging and probabilistic population forecasts. We compare the speed of change and variability in forecasts of the old age dependency ratio and the prospective old age dependency ratio as well as the same comparison for the median age and the prospective median age. While conventional measures of population aging are computed on the basis of the number of years people have already lived, prospective measures are computed also taking account of the expected number of years they have left to live. Those remaining life expectancies change over time and differ from place to place. We compare the probabilistic distributions of the conventional and prospective measures using examples from China, Germany, Iran, and the United States. The changes over time and the variability of the prospective indicators are smaller than those that are observed in the conventional ones. A wide variety of new results emerge from the combination of methodologies. For example, for Germany, Iran, and the United States the likelihood that the prospective median age of the population in 2098 will be lower than it is today is close to 100 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren C Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Patrick Gerland, 2017. "Probabilistic population aging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0179171
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stuart Gietel-Basten & Silvia E Giorguli Saucedo & Sergei Scherbov, 2020. "Prospective measures of aging for Central and South America," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Debasree Das Gupta & David W. S. Wong, 2021. "How “Dependent” Are We? A Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Young and the Older Adult Populations in the US," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(6), pages 1221-1252, December.
    3. Michael P. Cameron, 2023. "The measurement of structural ageing – an axiomatic approach," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Patrick Gerland, 2018. "The end of population aging in high-income countries," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 163-175.

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