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Backtesting the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Stochastic Mortality Models on Italian Death Rates

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  • Carlo Maccheroni

    (Bocconi University)

  • Samuel Nocito

    (University of Turin)

Abstract

The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus long-run ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Maccheroni & Samuel Nocito, 2017. "Backtesting the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Stochastic Mortality Models on Italian Death Rates," CeRP Working Papers 166, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    • Handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:166
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    Cited by:

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    2. Luca Regis, 2017. "Special Issue “Actuarial and Financial Risks in Life Insurance, Pensions and Household Finance”," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-2, December.
    3. Apostolos Bozikas & Georgios Pitselis, 2018. "An Empirical Study on Stochastic Mortality Modelling under the Age-Period-Cohort Framework: The Case of Greece with Applications to Insurance Pricing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-34, April.
    4. Marie Angèle Cathleen Alijean & Jason Narsoo, 2018. "Evaluation of the Kou-Modified Lee-Carter Model in Mortality Forecasting: Evidence from French Male Mortality Data," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Fabrizio Culotta, 2021. "Life Expectancy Heterogeneity and Pension Fairness: An Italian North-South Divide," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-22, March.

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