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COVID-19 and Global Poverty: Are LDCs Being Left Behind?

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  • Giovanni Valensisi

    (UNCTAD)

Abstract

The paper provides a preliminary assessment of COVID-19’s impact on global poverty in the light of IMF’s growth forecasts. It shows that the pandemic will erode many of the gains recorded over the last decade in terms of poverty reduction. Our baseline case suggests that globally the number of people living below US$1.90 per day will increase by 68 million in 2020 alone; this rise could however approach 100 million, should the recession turn out to be more severe than initially expected, as many practitioners fear. Without effective international support, this setback will pose a critical threat to the achievement of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The fallout from the pandemic will also exacerbate the geographic concentration of poverty, to the extent that the Least Developed Countries, with only 14% of the global population, are set to represent the main locus of extreme poverty worldwide.

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  • Giovanni Valensisi, 2020. "COVID-19 and Global Poverty: Are LDCs Being Left Behind?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1535-1557, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:eurjdr:v:32:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1057_s41287-020-00314-8
    DOI: 10.1057/s41287-020-00314-8
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    3. Stephanie O. Sangalang & Shelley Anne J. Medina & Zheina J. Ottong & Allen Lemuel G. Lemence & Donrey Totanes & John Cedrick Valencia & Patricia Andrea A. Singson & Mikaela Olaguera & Nelissa O. Prado, 2020. "Protocol for a Trial Assessing the Impacts of School-Based WaSH Interventions on Children’s Health Literacy, Handwashing, and Nutrition Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Tim Köhler & Haroon Bhorat, 2021. "Can cash transfers aid labour market recovery? Evidence from South Africa’s special COVID-19 grant," Working Papers 202108, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    5. Giulia Barletta & Finório Castigo & Eva‐Maria Egger & Michael Keller & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 771-802, May.
    6. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen Younger, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns and Expanded Social Assistance on Inequality, Poverty and Mobility in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Working Papers 556, Center for Global Development.
    7. Manish K Jha, 2022. "Pandemic precarity and the complicated case of Maharashtra: Interrogating state capacity and its fault lines," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-46, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Eva‐Maria Egger & Sam Jones & Patricia Justino & Ivan Manhique & Ricardo Santos, 2023. "Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1648-1666, October.
    9. Giulia Malevolti, 2022. "Can weather shocks give rise to a poverty trap? Evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers - Economics wp2022_10.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    10. Natéwindé Sawadogo & Youmanli Ouoba, 2023. "COVID-19, food coping strategies and households resilience: the case of informal sector in Burkina Faso," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(4), pages 1041-1056, August.
    11. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Guido Neidhöfer & Mariano Tommasi, 2020. "Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America," Working Papers 2013, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    12. Shobod Deba Nath & Kazi Md. Jamshed & Javed M. Shaikh, 2022. "The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on subsistence consumers' well‐being and coping strategies: Insights from India and Bangladesh," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 180-210, March.
    13. Spencer Henson & Uma Kambhampati & Tewodaj Mogues & Wendy Olsen & Martin Prowse & Raul Ramos & John Rand & Rasjah Rasiah & Keetie Roelen & Rebecca Tiessen & O. Fiona Yap, 2020. "The Development Impacts of COVID-19 at Home and Abroad: Politics and Implications of Government Action," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1339-1352, December.
    14. Andy Sumner & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez & Christopher Hoy, 2020. "Precarity and the pandemic: COVID-19 and poverty incidence, intensity, and severity in developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen D. Younger, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Expanded Social Assistance on Inequality and Poverty in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 92, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    16. Krauss, Judith E. & Artur, Luis & Brockington, Dan & Castro, Eduardo & Fernando, Jone & Fisher, Janet & Kingman, Andrew & Moises, Hosia Mavoto & Mlambo, Ana & Nuvunga, Milagre & Pritchard, Rose & Ribe, 2022. "‘To prevent this disease, we have to stay at home, but if we stay at home, we die of hunger’ – Livelihoods, vulnerability and coping with Covid-19 in rural Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Augustin F. C. Chabossou & Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide & Boris O. K. Lokonon & Cocou Jaurès Amegnaglo & Laurent G. Akpo, 2022. "COVID-19 and the Performance of Exporting Companies in Benin," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(2), pages 828-842, April.
    18. Rachel M. Gisselquist & Anustup Kundu, 2020. "Horizontal inequality, COVID-19, and lockdown readiness: Evidence from India," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-156, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Roy, Archi & Soni, Anchal & Deb, Soudeep, 2023. "A wavelet-based methodology to compare the impact of pandemic versus Russia–Ukraine conflict on crude oil sector and its interconnectedness with other energy and non-energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Sławomir Kalinowski & Aleksandra Łuczak & Adam Koziolek, 2022. "The Social Dimension of Security: The Dichotomy of Respondents’ Perceptions during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-20, January.
    21. Kristijan Krstic & Ronny Westerman & Vijay Kumar Chattu & Natalia V. Ekkert & Mihajlo Jakovljevic, 2020. "Corona-Triggered Global Macroeconomic Crisis of the Early 2020s," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-9, December.
    22. Yi Cheng & Haimeng Liu & Shaobin Wang & Xuegang Cui & Qirui Li, 2021. "Global Action on SDGs: Policy Review and Outlook in a Post-Pandemic Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-25, June.
    23. Farris, Jarrad & Morgan, Stephen & Johnson, Michael E., 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Changes in Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment in Africa," USDA Miscellaneous 329078, United States Department of Agriculture.
    24. Cuesta Leiva,Jose Antonio & Madrigal Correa,Alma Lucia & Pecorari,Natalia Gisel, 2022. "Social Sustainability, Poverty, and Income : An Empirical Exploration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10085, The World Bank.
    25. Bloem, Jeffrey & Farris, Jarrad, 2021. "COVID-19 Working Paper: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Food Security in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Review of the Emerging Microeconomic Literature," Administrative Publications 327341, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Crisis impact; Poverty; Africa; Least developed countries; SDGS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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