IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp-2020-77.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Precarity and the pandemic: COVID-19 and poverty incidence, intensity, and severity in developing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Andy Sumner
  • Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez
  • Christopher Hoy

Abstract

This paper makes a set of estimates for the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty incidence, intensity, and severity in developing countries and on the distribution of global poverty. We conclude there could be increases in poverty of a substantial magnitude—up to 400 million new poor living under the $1.90 poverty line, over 500 million new poor living under the poverty lines of $3.20 and $5.50.

Suggested Citation

  • Andy Sumner & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez & Christopher Hoy, 2020. "Precarity and the pandemic: COVID-19 and poverty incidence, intensity, and severity in developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-77
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2020-77.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Valensisi, 2020. "COVID-19 and Global Poverty: Are LDCs Being Left Behind?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1535-1557, December.
    2. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    3. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    5. Maho Hatayama & Mariana Viollaz & Hernan Winkler, 2020. "Jobs’ Amenability to Working from Home: Evidence from Skills Surveys for 53 Countries," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0263, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    6. Aziz Atamanov & Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Samuel Kofi Tetteh Baah & Judy Yang, 2020. "The Effect of New PPP Estimates on Global Poverty: A First Look," Global Poverty Monitoring Technical Note Series 12, The World Bank.
    7. Dean Jolliffe & Espen Beer Prydz, 2016. "Estimating international poverty lines from comparable national thresholds," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(2), pages 185-198, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen D. Younger, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Expanded Social Assistance on Inequality and Poverty in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 92, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    2. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    3. Christopher Hoy & Andy Sumner, 2021. "The End of Global Poverty: Is the UN Sustainable Development Goal 1 (Still) Achievable?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 419-429, September.
    4. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen D Younger, 2023. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Living Standards: Addressing the Challenges of Nowcasting Unprecedented Macroeconomic Shocks with Scant Data and Uncharted Economic Behavior," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27.
    5. Gray Molina George & Montoya-Aguirre María & Ortiz-Juarez Eduardo, 2022. "Temporary Basic Income in Times of Pandemic: Rationale, Costs and Poverty-Mitigation Potential," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 125-154, December.
    6. Piotr Lewandowski & Katarzyna Lipowska & Mateusz Smoter, 2022. "Working from home during a pandemic – a discrete choice experiment in Poland," IBS Working Papers 03/2022, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    7. Gottlieb Charles & Grobovšek Jan & Poschke Markus & Saltiel Fernando, 2022. "Lockdown Accounting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 197-210, January.
    8. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    10. Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Jacob, Joshy & Srivastava, Jagriti, 2022. "Fishing in muddy waters: Mergers and acquisitions during uncertainty," IIMA Working Papers WP 2022-09-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    11. Amory Martin & Maryia Markhvida & Stéphane Hallegatte & Brian Walsh, 2020. "Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Household Consumption and Poverty," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 453-479, October.
    12. Rodriguez Takeuchi,Laura Kiku & Atamanov,Aziz, 2021. "Welfare and Distributional Impacts of Inflation and the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Islamic Republic of Iran," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9558, The World Bank.
    13. Mabugu, Ramos E. & Maisonnave, Helene & Henseler, Martin & Chitiga-Mabugu, Margaret & Makochekanwa, Albert, 2023. "Implications of COVID-19 and mitigation measures on gender and the Zimbabwean economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Inequalities in the times of a pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 5-41.
    15. Christophe Muller & Nouréini Sayouti, 2021. "How does information on minimum and maximum food prices affect measured monetary poverty? Evidence from Niger," AMSE Working Papers 2102, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Oct 2021.
    16. Christian Kagerl & Julia Starzetz, 2023. "Working from home for good? Lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and what this means for the future of work," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(1), pages 229-265, January.
    17. Nicola Melluso & Andrea Bonaccorsi & Filippo Chiarello & Gualtiero Fantoni, 2021. "Rapid detection of fast innovation under the pressure of COVID-19," Papers 2102.00197, arXiv.org.
    18. David Bounie & Youssouf Camara & John Galbraith, 2020. "Consumers’ Mobility, Expenditure and Online-Offline Substitution Response to COVID-19: Evidence from French Transaction Data," Cahiers de recherche 14-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    19. Ammielou Gaduena & Christopher Ed Caboverde & John Paul Flaminiano, 2022. "Telework potential in the Philippines," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 434-454, June.
    20. Adesoji O. Farayibi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Nigeria," Working Papers 20/042, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Siméon Rapin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.