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Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade

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  • Reuven Glick

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

The effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and European Union (EU) on trade are separately estimated using an empirical gravity model. Employing a panel approach with both time-varying country and dyadic fixed effects on a large span of data (across both countries and time), it is found that EMU and EU each significantly boosted exports. EMU expanded European trade by 40% for the original members, while the EU increased trade by almost 70%. Newer members have experienced even higher trade as a result of joining the EU, but more time is necessary to see the effects of their joining EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Glick, 2017. "Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(2), pages 194-209, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0020-x
    DOI: 10.1057/s41294-017-0020-x
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    2. Nauro F. Campos & Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronisation in a Currency Union: Taking Stock of the Evidence," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_017, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    3. Giovanni Cerulli & Silvia Nenci & Luca Salvatici & Antonio Zinilli, 2022. "Currency Unions and Global Value Chains: The Impact of the Euro on the Italian Value Added Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 373-407, July.
    4. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2022. "ECOWAS single currency: Prospective effects on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Natalie Chen & Dennis Novy, 2022. "Gravity and Heterogeneous Trade Cost Elasticities," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1349-1377.
    6. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2017. "Breaking Badly: The Currency Union Effect on Trade," MPRA Paper 79973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tania El Kallab & Cristina Terra, 2018. "French Colonial Trade Patterns and European Settlements," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 291-331, September.
    8. Castañeda, Juan E. & Cendejas, José Luis, 2022. "Macroeconomic asymmetry in the Eurozone before and after the Global Financial Crisis: An appraisal of the role of the ECB," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 184-202.
    9. Campos, Nauro F. & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2019. "Business cycle synchronisation and currency unions: A review of the econometric evidence using meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 274-283.
    10. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Mika, Alina & Zymek, Robert, 2018. "Friends without benefits? New EMU members and the “Euro Effect” on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-92.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Eduardo Rodrigues Sanguinet & Augusto Mussi Alvim & Miguel Atienza, 2022. "Trade agreements and participation in global value chains: Empirical evidence from Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 702-738, March.
    14. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2018. "The happy few: cross-country evidence of the euro effect on trade," Working Papers 1803, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    15. Campos, Nauro F. & Jarko, Fidrmuc & Iikka, Korhonen, 2017. "Business cycle synchronisation in a currency union: Taking stock of the evidence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2017, Bank of Finland.
    16. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez & Salvador Gil‐Pareja & Rafael Llorca‐Vivero & José Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2020. "EMU and trade: A PPML re‐assessment with intra‐national trade flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2574-2599, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity; exports; trade; bilateral; fixed; time-varying; country; currency union; monetary union; agreement; regional; European;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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