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Portfolio selection in the presence of systemic risk

Author

Listed:
  • Almira Biglova
  • Sergio Ortobelli
  • Frank J Fabozzi

    (EDHEC Business School and EDHEC Risk Institute)

Abstract

In this article we study the portfolio selection problem in the presence of systemic risk. We propose reward-risk measures that account for systemic risk and provide a methodology to generate realistic return scenarios. The methodology involves first analyzing the empirical behavior of several MSCI country indexes, suggesting how to approximate future scenarios. Then we examine the profitability of several strategies based on the forecasted evolution of returns. In particular, we compare the optimal sample paths of future wealth obtained by performing reward-risk portfolio optimization on simulated data and we discuss the ex-post performance of the proposed portfolio strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Almira Biglova & Sergio Ortobelli & Frank J Fabozzi, 2014. "Portfolio selection in the presence of systemic risk," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(5), pages 285-299, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:15:y:2014:i:5:d:10.1057_jam.2014.30
    DOI: 10.1057/jam.2014.30
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    Cited by:

    1. Weidong Lin & Jose Olmo & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2022. "Portfolio Selection Under Systemic Risk," Working Papers 202208, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    2. Thilini V. Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2023. "The Financial Market of Indices of Socioeconomic Wellbeing," Papers 2303.05654, arXiv.org.
    3. Weidong Lin & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2023. "Portfolio Selection Under Non-Gaussianity And Systemic Risk: A Machine Learning Based Forecasting Approach," Working Papers 202310, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    4. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2022. "A Natural Disasters Index," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(2), pages 263-284, April.
    5. Noureddine Kouaissah & Amin Hocine, 2021. "Forecasting systemic risk in portfolio selection: The role of technical trading rules," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 708-729, July.
    6. A. Alexandre Trindade & Abootaleb Shirvani & Xiaohan Ma, 2020. "A Socioeconomic Well-Being Index," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 48-62, July.
    7. Pang, Xiaochuan & Zhu, Shushang & Cui, Xueting & Ma, Jiali, 2023. "Systemic risk of optioned portfolio: Controllability and optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Noureddine Kouaissah & Sergio Ortobelli Lozza & Ikram Jebabli, 2022. "Portfolio Selection Using Multivariate Semiparametric Estimators and a Copula PCA-Based Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 833-859, October.
    9. Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & De Luca, Giovanni & Rivieccio, Giorgia, 2023. "Non-Gaussian models for CoVaR estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 391-404.
    10. Kouaissah, Noureddine, 2023. "Robust reward-risk performance measures with weakly second-order stochastic dominance constraints," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 53-62.
    11. Thilini V. Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2020. "A Natural Disasters Index," Papers 2008.03672, arXiv.org.
    12. Sergio Ortobelli & Noureddine Kouaissah & Tomáš Tichý, 2019. "On the use of conditional expectation in portfolio selection problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 501-530, March.
    13. Davide Lauria & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev, 2023. "Enhancing CVaR portfolio optimisation performance with GAM factor models," Papers 2401.00188, arXiv.org.
    14. Michele Leonardo Bianchi & Giovanni De Luca & Giorgia Rivieccio, 2020. "CoVaR with volatility clustering, heavy tails and non-linear dependence," Papers 2009.10764, arXiv.org.
    15. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar T. Rachev, 2021. "Global Index on Financial Losses Due to Crime in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    16. Xiaochuan Pang & Shushang Zhu & Xueting Cui & Jiali Ma, 2022. "Systemic Risk of Optioned Portfolios: Controllability and Optimization," Papers 2209.04685, arXiv.org.
    17. Kouaissah, Noureddine, 2021. "Using multivariate stochastic dominance to enhance portfolio selection and warn of financial crises," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 480-493.

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