IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ove/journl/aid17830.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit to private sector, household debt and economic growth: An empirical investigation of EU countries

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Asteriou
  • Konstantinos Spanos

Abstract

This paper investigates how the credit to private sector affects the impact of household debt on economic growth in 25 European Union countries over the period 1995-2018. The findings reveal that the positive effect of household debt on economic growth turns to negative with the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and beyond a certain point at around 58% of GDP, thus suggesting that their relationship is non-linear. Interestingly, the adverse effect subjects to the increased pressure of the credit to private sector when it is above 70%, and the pressure becomes even higher when the ratio is above 90%.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Asteriou & Konstantinos Spanos, 2022. "Credit to private sector, household debt and economic growth: An empirical investigation of EU countries," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 34-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:17830
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/17830
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    3. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    4. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    5. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    6. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2016. "A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1645-1704, September.
    7. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    8. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    9. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "The intertwining of credit and banking fragility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 459-475, January.
    10. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    12. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    13. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    14. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Currency Pegs, and Involuntary Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1466-1514.
    15. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    16. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2019. "Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Economic Growth?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(S1), pages 1-28, September.
    17. Anton Korinek & Alp Simsek, 2016. "Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 699-738, March.
    18. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2011. "Originate-to-distribute Model and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1881-1915.
    20. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    21. Mr. Adrian Alter & Alan Xiaochen Feng & Nico Valckx, 2018. "Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2018/076, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Fink, Gerhard & Haiss, Peter & Vuksic, Goran, 2009. "Contribution of financial market segments at different stages of development: Transition, cohesion and mature economies compared," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 431-455, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Unger, Robert, 2018. "Revisiting the finance and growth nexus: A deeper look at sectors and instruments," Discussion Papers 55/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2017. "Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms," BIS Working Papers 645, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.
    9. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2018. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 85-121, September.
    10. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Bahadir, Berrak & De, Kuhelika & Lastrapes, William D., 2020. "Household debt, consumption and inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Going with the flows: New borrowing, debt service and the transmission of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2018, Bank of Finland.
    13. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," Working Paper Series 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Mr. Adrian Alter & Alan Xiaochen Feng & Nico Valckx, 2018. "Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2018/076, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2022. "Predictable Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 863-921, April.
    17. Mathias Klein, 2017. "Austerity and Private Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1555-1585, October.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Engelbert Stockhammer & Giorgos Gouzoulis & Rob Calvert Jump, 2019. "Debt-driven business cycles in historical perspective: The cases of the USA (1889-2015) and UK (1882-2010)," Working Papers PKWP1907, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    20. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2023. "Credit, banking fragility, and economic performance," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 553-573.
    21. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    22. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:17830. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francisco J. Delgado (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deovies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.