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Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective

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  • Mr. Adrian Alter
  • Alan Xiaochen Feng
  • Nico Valckx

Abstract

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950–2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt heighten the probability of future banking crises, which significantly disrupts financial intermediation. Third, crash risk may be systematically neglected due to investors’ overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In addition, several institutional factors such as flexible exchange rates, higher financial development and inclusion are found to mitigate this impact. Finally, the tradeoff between financial inclusion and stability nuances downside risks to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Adrian Alter & Alan Xiaochen Feng & Nico Valckx, 2018. "Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2018/076, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/076
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    1. Callum Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession," NBER Working Papers 16965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lukáš Fiala, 2021. "Modelling of mortgage debt´s determinants: the case of the Czech Republic," FFA Working Papers 4.002, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 15 Jan 2022.
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    4. Zohair Alam & Mr. Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Heedon Kang & Mr. Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2019. "Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/066, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Can Xu & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2023. "Does Household Borrowing Reduce the Trade Balance? Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 759-787, September.
    6. Lukáš Fiala, 2022. "Modelling Household Mortgage Debt: the case of the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(6), pages 443-463.
    7. Hyun Hak Kim, 2022. "A dynamic analysis of household debt using a self-organizing map," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2893-2919, June.
    8. Tarika Sikarwar & Anivesh Goyal & Harshita Mathur, 2020. "Household Debt, Financial Inclusion, and Economic Growth of India: Is it Alarming for India?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(3), pages 229-248, February.
    9. Peter Karlström, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Booms, and Banks' Systemic Risk," CEMLA Working Paper Series 03/2023, CEMLA.
    10. Bahadir, Berrak & De, Kuhelika & Lastrapes, William D., 2020. "Household debt, consumption and inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Ying’ai Piao & Meiru Li & Hongyuan Sun & Ying Yang, 2023. "Income Inequality, Household Debt, and Consumption Growth in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-13, February.
    12. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, 2022. "Household debt and macroeconomic stability: An empirical stock‐flow consistent model for the Danish economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 144-197, February.
    13. Sim, Seung-Gyu & Lee, Saiah, 2020. "The cyclical behavior of household and corporate credit in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    14. Lukáš Fiala & Petr Teplý, 2021. "The Use of Borrower-based Measures within Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from the European Economic Area," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(1), pages 71-91.
    15. Samba Mbaye & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Kyungla Chae, 2018. "Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public," IMF Working Papers 2018/141, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Bellettini, Giorgio & Delbono, Flavio & Karlström, Peter & Pastorello, Sergio, 2019. "Income inequality and banking crises: Testing the level hypothesis directly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Sala, Hector & Trivín, Pedro, 2022. "Family Finances and Debt Overhang: Evolving Consumption Patterns of Spanish Households," IZA Discussion Papers 15222, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Dimitrios Asteriou & Konstantinos Spanos, 2022. "Credit to private sector, household debt and economic growth: An empirical investigation of EU countries," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 34-142.
    19. Mr. Gaston Gelos & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Mr. Machiko Narita & Federico Grinberg & Umang Rawat & Shujaat Khan, 2019. "Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?," IMF Working Papers 2019/011, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mr. Adrian Alter & Elizabeth M. Mahoney, 2020. "Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/042, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Marco Alberto Nunez Ramirez & Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero & Cecilia Lorena Velarde Flores & Irma Guadalupe Esparza Garcia & Sacnicte Valdez del Rio & Maria Nelida Sanchez Banuelos & Altayra Geraldi, 2020. "Organizational Culture and Knowledge Management: Evidence from Bolivia and Mexico," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(3), pages 249-265, March.
    22. Unger, Robert, 2018. "Revisiting the finance and growth nexus: A deeper look at sectors and instruments," Discussion Papers 55/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Abd Samad, Khairunnisa & Mohd Daud, Siti Nurazira & Mohd Dali, Nuradli Ridzwan Shah, 2020. "Early Warning Indicators for Systemic Banking Crises: Household Debt and Property Prices," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(1), pages 121-134.
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