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The Profits–Leverage Puzzle Revisited

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  • Murray Z. Frank
  • Vidhan K. Goyal

Abstract

The inverse relation between leverage and profitability is widely regarded as a serious defect of the trade-off theory. We show that the defect is not with the theory but with the use of a leverage ratio in which profitability affects both the numerator and the denominator. Profitability directly increases the value of equity. Firms do take the predicted offsetting actions. They issue debt and repurchase equity when profitability rises, and retire debt and issue equity when profitability falls. Consistent with variable transactions costs, the adjustment is not generally sufficient to fully undo the profitability shocks. Accordingly, on average the leverage ratio falls as profitability rises.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray Z. Frank & Vidhan K. Goyal, 2015. "The Profits–Leverage Puzzle Revisited," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1415-1453.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:19:y:2015:i:4:p:1415-1453.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfu032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach, 1985. "Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 301-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Strebulaev, Ilya A. & Whited, Toni M., 2012. "Dynamic Models and Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 6(1–2), pages 1-163, November.
    3. Stewart C. Myers, 1993. "Still Searching For Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(1), pages 4-14, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank, Murray Z. & Shen, Tao, 2019. "Corporate capital structure actions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 384-402.
    2. Ferrés, Daniel & Ormazabal, Gaizka & Povel, Paul & Sertsios, Giorgo, 2021. "Capital structure under collusion," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Michi Nishihara & Takashi Shibata, 2020. "Optimal capital structure and bankruptcy cascades," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 20-10, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Peter M. Demarzo & Zhiguo He, 2021. "Leverage Dynamics without Commitment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1195-1250, June.
    5. Tut, Daniel, 2019. "Creditor Rights, Debt Capacity and Securities Issuance: Evidence from Anti-Recharacterization Laws," MPRA Paper 102460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Davidson Heath & Giorgo Sertsios, 2022. "Profitability and Financial Leverage: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8386-8410, November.
    7. Vidhan K. Goyal & Frank Packer, 2017. "Capital Structure in Emerging Asia," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2017-48, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Dec 2017.
    8. Ruhollah Eskandari & Morteza Zamanian, 2023. "Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small and large firms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1018-1047, November.
    9. Chauhan, Gaurav Singh & Huseynov, Fariz, 2018. "Corporate financing and target behavior: New tests and evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 840-856.
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    11. Banal Estanol, Albert & Siciliani, Paolo & Yoon, Kyoungsoo, 2022. "Competition, profitability and financial leverage," Bank of England working papers 962, Bank of England.
    12. Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2022. "Firm–bank credit network, business cycle and macroprudential policy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 475-499, April.
    13. Michel Alexandre & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2020. "Combining monetary policy and prudential regulation: an agent-based modeling approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(2), pages 385-411, April.
    14. Krivogorsky, Victoria & Joh, Gun-Ho & DeBoskey, D.G., 2018. "The influence of supply side factors on firm's borrowing decisions: European evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 202-222.
    15. Cooper, Ian A. & Lambertides, Neophytos, 2018. "Large dividend increases and leverage," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 17-33.
    16. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi, 2021. "Optimal capital structure and simultaneous bankruptcy of firms in corporate networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Vidhan Goyal & Frank Packer, 2017. "Corporate leverage in emerging Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial systems and the real economy, volume 91, pages 65-94, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. María T. Tascón & Paula Castro & Adrián Ferreras, 2021. "How does a firm's life cycle influence the relationship between carbon performance and financial debt?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1879-1897, May.
    19. Michal Pavlicko & Jaroslav Mazanec, 2022. "Minimalistic Logit Model as an Effective Tool for Predicting the Risk of Financial Distress in the Visegrad Group," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-22, April.

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