Timing of childbirth, capital accumulation, and economic welfare
AbstractThis paper examines the effect of the timing of childbirth on capital accumulation and welfare in a simple overlapping generations model, where each agent lives for four periods and works for two periods. We show that delayed childbearing not only reduces population, but also generates fluctuations in the age composition of workers in the labour force. This causes the aggregate saving rate to fluctuate, which leads to cycles in the capital--labour ratio. When all agents delay childbearing, we analytically show that both the capital--labour ratio and the welfare of all agents can fall in the long run, despite the population decline. When a fraction of agents delay childbearing, it has differential welfare effects on agents depending on their positions in the demographic cycles. The effects of lower lifetime fertility and technological progress are also examined. Copyright 2013 Oxford University Press 2012 All rights reserved, Oxford University Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 65 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://oep.oupjournals.org/
Other versions of this item:
- Momota, Akira & Horii, Ryo, 2011. "Timing of childbirth, capital accumulation, and economic welfare," MPRA Paper 34088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert Tamura, 2004.
"Human capital and economic development,"
2004-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007.
"Optimal social security in a dynastic model with investment externalities and endogenous fertility,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3545-3567, November.
- Zeng, J & Jie Zhang, . "Optimal social security in a dynastic model with investment externalities and endogenous fertility," MRG Discussion Paper Series 1006, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
- Mark Berger, 1989. "Demographic Cycles, Cohort Size, and Earnings," Demography, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 311-321, May.
- Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February.
- Yew, Siew Ling & Zhang, Jie, 2009. "Optimal social security in a dynastic model with human capital externalities, fertility and endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 605-619, April.
- Hippolyte D'Albis, 2007.
"Demographic structure and capital accumulation,"
- Charles H. Mullin & Ping Wang, 2002. "The Timing of Childbearing among Heterogeneous Women in Dynamic General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 9231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002.
" Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-39, December.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Macroeconomics 0212008, EconWPA.
- Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Matthias Doepke, 2002.
"Child Mortality and Fertility Decline: Does the Barro-Becker Model Fit the Facts?,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
824, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, 06.
- Iyigun, Murat F., 2000. "Timing of childbearing and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 255-269, February.
- Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003.
"A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002. "A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility, and Human Capital Investment," Macroeconomics 0212009, EconWPA.
- Tomás Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220.
- Cigno, Alessandro & Ermisch, John, 1989. "A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 737-760, April.
- Kasey Buckles, 2008. "Understanding the Returns to Delayed Childbearing for Working Women," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 403-07, May.
- Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-VÃ©ron & Katheline Schubert, 2010. "Demo-economic equilibria when childbearing age is endogenous," LERNA Working Papers 10.04.310, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.