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Investment in farming under uncertainty and decoupled support: a real options approach

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  • Luca Di Corato
  • Dimitrios Zormpas

Abstract

We develop a real options model to assess the impact of decoupled payments on agricultural investments. The context that we are addressing is the one set by the Common Agricultural Policy where farmers are eligible for decoupled payments as long as their land is properly maintained. We show that decoupled payments are non-neutral with respect to choices concerning timing and capacity. We find that they (i) induce earlier investment with lower productive capacity; (ii) increase the value of the investment option associated with land and (iii) reduce the volatility of farm income. A numerical exercise complements our theoretical analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Di Corato & Dimitrios Zormpas, 2022. "Investment in farming under uncertainty and decoupled support: a real options approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(4), pages 876-909.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:49:y:2022:i:4:p:876-909.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbac002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    decoupling; real options; land development; capital intensity; passive farming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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