IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ora/journl/v1y2014i1p379-389.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Entrepreneurship In Constructions Sector - Explanatory Economic Factors And Forecasts For Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Sipos-Gug Sebastian

    (University of Oradea, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Badulescu Alina

    (University of Oradea, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

Entrepreneurship is an active field of study; however entrepreneurship in the field of construction has been relatively neglected in recent research. The construction sector's importance lays in its multiplier effect, through employment, consumption of materials and by providing infrastructure for further economic development. In order to maximize this effect, innovation and entrepreneurship in construction are critical factors. We have investigated the relation of several economic factors with entrepreneurship in construction and have found that the volume of construction works, the number of construction workers, building permits and the subjective opinion of the businesspersons in the construction industry, expressed through a conjecture index, have a long and medium term positive relation with it, while unemployment, Consumer Price Index, Construction Cost Index and Closure of construction companies have a negative relation with entrepreneurship in construction, taking into account different time lags for each variable. The negative relation in the case of unemployment and inflation, on the other side, have long time lags (15 and 21 months, respectively) suggesting that these economic phenomena might have long term negative consequences on entrepreneurship in construction, and by extension on the construction industry as a whole. We performed several forecasts (based on ETS (M,N,M) and ARIMA methods) and we have concluded that the level of entrepreneurship in construction in Romania for the next 2 years will remain relatively unchanged, save for intra year seasonal variances. Therefore external intervention will be required if one wants to encourage growth in this field. Taking into consideration the relations that we have uncovered in the first section of the paper, these external interventions should focus not only on encouraging entrepreneurship through various individual or company level measure, but on a larger scale, for instance through construction cost related inflation control, and by encouraging construction works, for instance through infrastructure projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Sipos-Gug Sebastian & Badulescu Alina, 2014. "Entrepreneurship In Constructions Sector - Explanatory Economic Factors And Forecasts For Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 379-389, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2014:i:1:p:379-389
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2014/n1/040.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
    2. Su-xian Zhang & Ling Yao, 2013. "A Study on Coordination Relationship of Construction Industry and Economic Growth in Shaanxi Province," Springer Books, in: Ershi Qi & Jiang Shen & Runliang Dou (ed.), The 19th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 11-19, Springer.
    3. Max Keilbach & Jagannadha Pawan Tamvada & David B. Audretsch (ed.), 2009. "Sustaining Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth," International Studies in Entrepreneurship, Springer, number 978-0-387-78695-7, December.
    4. Rob Hyndman & Muhammad Akram & Blyth Archibald, 2008. "The admissible parameter space for exponential smoothing models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 60(2), pages 407-426, June.
    5. Hector Rocha & Rolf Sternberg, 2005. "Entrepreneurship: The Role of Clusters Theoretical Perspectives and Empirical Evidence from Germany," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 267-292, February.
    6. DODESCU Anca & Badulescu Alina, 2009. "Considerations About Evolution, Density And Specialization Perspectives Of Smes Sector In The Western Part Of Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 302-309, May.
    7. Timothy Bates, 2006. "Alleviating the lagging performance of economically depressed communities and regions," Proceedings: Community Affairs Dept. Conferences, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
    8. Jan Rath, 2002. "A quintessential immigrant niche? The non-case of immigrants in the Dutch construction industry," Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 355-372, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alysha M De Livera, 2010. "Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    3. Sipos-Gug Sebastian & Badulescu Alina-Daciana, 2013. "Entrepreneurial Activity In Romania - A Time Series Clustering Analysis At The Nuts3 Level," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 673-682, July.
    4. Corberán-Vallet, Ana & Bermúdez, José D. & Vercher, Enriqueta, 2011. "Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 252-265, April.
    5. Sinclair Davidson & Ashton de Silva, 2014. "The Plain Truth about Plain Packaging: An Econometric Analysis of the Australian 2011 Tobacco Plain Packaging Act," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 27-44.
    6. Fernández-Amador, Octavio & Francois, Joseph F. & Oberdabernig, Doris A. & Tomberger, Patrick, 2020. "The methane footprint of nations: Stylized facts from a global panel dataset," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Chinloy, Peter & Jiang, Cheng & John, Kose, 2020. "Investment, depreciation and obsolescence of R&D," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Pritularga, Kandrika F. & Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2023. "Shrinkage estimator for exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1351-1365.
    9. George Athanasopoulos & Ashton de Silva, 2010. "Multivariate exponential smoothing for forecasting tourist arrivals to Australia and New Zealand," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    10. Chai, Jian & Zhang, Zhong-Yu & Wang, Shou-Yang & Lai, Kin Keung & Liu, John, 2014. "Aviation fuel demand development in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 224-235.
    11. Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2015. "Complex Exponential Smoothing," MPRA Paper 69394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Corberán-Vallet, Ana & Bermúdez, José D. & Vercher, Enriqueta, 2011. "Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 252-265.
    13. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2022. "Random coefficient state-space model: Estimation and performance in M3–M4 competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 352-366.
    14. Graff, Mario & Peña, Rafael & Medina, Aurelio & Escalante, Hugo Jair, 2014. "Wind speed forecasting using a portfolio of forecasters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 550-559.
    15. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    16. Carla Daniela Calá & Miguel Manjón-Antolín & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2016. "Regional determinants of firm entry in a developing country," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(2), pages 259-279, June.
    17. Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
    18. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Trapero, Juan R., 2014. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 291-302.
    19. de Silva, Ashton J, 2010. "Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic variables, evaluating innovations state space approaches," MPRA Paper 27411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Pawlikowski, Maciej & Chorowska, Agata, 2020. "Weighted ensemble of statistical models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 93-97.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    entrepreneurship; construction; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2014:i:1:p:379-389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catalin ZMOLE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feoraro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.