IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nathum/v4y2020i6d10.1038_s41562-020-0896-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Author

Listed:
  • Dabo Guan

    (Tsinghua University
    University College London)

  • Daoping Wang

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

  • Stephane Hallegatte

    (The World Bank)

  • Steven J. Davis

    (University of California, Irvine)

  • Jingwen Huo

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Shuping Li

    (Shandong University)

  • Yangchun Bai

    (Shandong University)

  • Tianyang Lei

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Qianyu Xue

    (Shandong University)

  • D’Maris Coffman

    (University College London)

  • Danyang Cheng

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Peipei Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xi Liang

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Bing Xu

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Xiaosheng Lu

    (Spark Ventures)

  • Shouyang Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Klaus Hubacek

    (University of Groningen)

  • Peng Gong

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dabo Guan & Daoping Wang & Stephane Hallegatte & Steven J. Davis & Jingwen Huo & Shuping Li & Yangchun Bai & Tianyang Lei & Qianyu Xue & D’Maris Coffman & Danyang Cheng & Peipei Chen & Xi Liang & Bing, 2020. "Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 577-587, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:4:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41562-020-0896-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0896-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wamboye, Evelyn F. & Nyaronga, Peter John & Sergi, Bruno S., 2020. "What are the determinant of international tourism in Tanzania?," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    2. Elco E. Koks & Mark Thissen, 2016. "A Multiregional Impact Assessment Model for disaster analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 429-449, October.
    3. Otto, Christian & Willner, Sven Norman & Wenz, Leonie & Frieler, Katja & Levermann, Anders, 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," OSF Preprints 7yyhd, Center for Open Science.
    4. Masato Yamazaki & Atsushi Koike & Yoshinori Sone, 2018. "A Heuristic Approach to the Estimation of Key Parameters for a Monthly, Recursive, Dynamic CGE Model," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 283-301, October.
    5. Paula Santos Ceryno & Luiz Felipe Scavarda & Katja Klingebiel, 2015. "Supply chain risk: empirical research in the automotive industry," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 1145-1164, October.
    6. Otto, C. & Willner, S.N. & Wenz, L. & Frieler, K. & Levermann, A., 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 232-269.
    7. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 152-167, January.
    8. Matsuo, Hirofumi, 2015. "Implications of the Tohoku earthquake for Toyota׳s coordination mechanism: Supply chain disruption of automotive semiconductors," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 217-227.
    9. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    10. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina," Post-Print hal-00716550, HAL.
    11. Albert E. Steenge & Marija Bockarjova, 2007. "Thinking about Imbalances in Post-catastrophe Economies: An Input-Output based Proposition," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 205-223.
    12. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2019. "Propagation of negative shocks across nation-wide firm networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Yasuhide Okuyama & Joost R. Santos, 2014. "Disaster Impact And Input--Output Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 1-12, March.
    14. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2019. "Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 841-847, September.
    15. Yun Qiu & Xi Chen & Wei Shi, 2020. "Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1127-1172, October.
    16. Shaowen Luo, 2020. "Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 246-269, April.
    17. Ivanov, Dmitry, 2020. "Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    18. Smith, Richard D. & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Barnett, Tony, 2011. "Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 235-244, July.
    19. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An Adaptive Regional Input‐Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 779-799, June.
    20. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daoping Wang & Ottar N. Bjørnstad & Tianyang Lei & Yida Sun & Jingwen Huo & Qi Hao & Zhao Zeng & Shupeng Zhu & Stéphane Hallegatte & Ruiyun Li & Dabo Guan & Nils C. Stenseth, 2023. "Supply chains create global benefits from improved vaccine accessibility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Hu, Xi & Pant, Raghav & Hall, Jim W. & Surminski, Swenja & Huang, Jiashun, 2019. "Multi-scale assessment of the economic impacts of flooding: evidence from firm to macro-level analysis in the Chinese manufacturing sector," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100534, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. David Nortes Martínez & Frédéric Grelot & Pauline Bremond & Stefano Farolfi & Juliette Rouchier, 2021. "Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France," Post-Print hal-03609616, HAL.
    5. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yohsuke Murase & Yasuyuki Todo, 2021. "Do economic effects of the anti-COVID-19 lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.
    6. Kilian Kuhla & Sven Norman Willner & Christian Otto & Leonie Wenz & Anders Levermann, 2021. "Future heat stress to reduce people’s purchasing power," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Pichler, Anton & Pangallo, Marco & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria & Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2022. "Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Samuel Juhel & Adrien Delahais & Vincent Viguie, 2023. "Robustness of the evaluation of indirect costs of natural disasters: example of the ARIO model," CIRED Working Papers hal-04196749, HAL.
    9. Leonie Wenz & Anders Levermann & Sven Norman Willner & Christian Otto & Kilian Kuhla, 2020. "Post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: Short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    10. Xi Hu & Raghav Pant & Jim W. Hall & Swenja Surminski & Jiashun Huang, 2019. "Multi-Scale Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Flooding: Evidence from Firm to Macro-Level Analysis in the Chinese Manufacturing Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, April.
    11. Hiroyasu Inoue, 2021. "Propagation of International Supply-Chain Disruptions between Firms in a Country," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.
    12. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    13. Rui Huang & Arunima Malik & Manfred Lenzen & Yutong Jin & Yafei Wang & Futu Faturay & Zhiyi Zhu, 2022. "Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2227-2248, February.
    14. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-10, September.
    15. Trond G. Husby & Elco E. Koks, 2017. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 287-305, May.
    16. Otto, Christian & Willner, Sven Norman & Wenz, Leonie & Frieler, Katja & Levermann, Anders, 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," OSF Preprints 7yyhd, Center for Open Science.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1nlv566svi86iqtetenms15tc4 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5qr7f0k4sk8rbq4do5u6v70rm0 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2019. "Propagation of negative shocks across nation-wide firm networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    20. Kuhla, Kilian & Willner, Sven N & Otto, Christian & Levermann, Anders, 2023. "Resilience of international trade to typhoon-related supply disruptions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    21. Balakrishnan, Srijith & Lim, Taehoon & Zhang, Zhanmin, 2022. "A methodology for evaluating the economic risks of hurricane-related disruptions to port operations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 58-79.
    22. Maureen S. Golan & Laura H. Jernegan & Igor Linkov, 2020. "Trends and applications of resilience analytics in supply chain modeling: systematic literature review in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 222-243, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:4:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41562-020-0896-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.