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Reconstructed eight-century streamflow in the Tibetan Plateau reveals contrasting regional variability and strong nonstationarity

Author

Listed:
  • Yenan Wu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Di Long

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Upmanu Lall

    (Columbia University)

  • Bridget R. Scanlon

    (The University of Texas at Austin)

  • Fuqiang Tian

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Xudong Fu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Jianshi Zhao

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Jianyun Zhang

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

  • Hao Wang

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Chunhong Hu

    (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

Abstract

Short instrumental streamflow records in the South and East Tibetan Plateau (SETP) limit understanding of the full range and long-term variability in streamflow, which could greatly impact freshwater resources for about one billion people downstream. Here we reconstruct eight centuries (1200−2012 C.E.) of annual streamflow from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas in five headwater regions across the SETP. We find two regional patterns, including northern (Yellow, Yangtze, and Lancang-Mekong) and southern (Nu-Salween and Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra) SETP regions showing ten contrasting wet and dry periods, with a dividing line of regional moisture regimes at ~32°−33°N identified. We demonstrate strong temporal nonstationarity in streamflow variability, and reveal much greater high/low mean flow periods in terms of duration and magnitude: mostly pre-instrumental wetter conditions in the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra and drier conditions in other rivers. By contrast, the frequency of extreme flows during the instrumental periods for the Yangtze, Nu-Salween, and Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra has increased by ~18% relative to the pre-instrumental periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Yenan Wu & Di Long & Upmanu Lall & Bridget R. Scanlon & Fuqiang Tian & Xudong Fu & Jianshi Zhao & Jianyun Zhang & Hao Wang & Chunhong Hu, 2022. "Reconstructed eight-century streamflow in the Tibetan Plateau reveals contrasting regional variability and strong nonstationarity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34221-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34221-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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