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Global predictions of primary soil salinization under changing climate in the 21st century

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  • Amirhossein Hassani

    (The University of Manchester
    NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research)

  • Adisa Azapagic

    (The University of Manchester)

  • Nima Shokri

    (Hamburg University of Technology)

Abstract

Soil salinization has become one of the major environmental and socioeconomic issues globally and this is expected to be exacerbated further with projected climatic change. Determining how climate change influences the dynamics of naturally-occurring soil salinization has scarcely been addressed due to highly complex processes influencing salinization. This paper sets out to address this long-standing challenge by developing data-driven models capable of predicting primary (naturally-occurring) soil salinity and its variations in the world’s drylands up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Analysis of the future predictions made here identifies the dryland areas of South America, southern and western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa as the salinization hotspots. Conversely, we project a decrease in the soil salinity of the drylands in the northwest United States, the Horn of Africa, Eastern Europe, Turkmenistan, and west Kazakhstan in response to climate change over the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Amirhossein Hassani & Adisa Azapagic & Nima Shokri, 2021. "Global predictions of primary soil salinization under changing climate in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26907-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26907-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mirela Matković Stojšin & Sofija Petrović & Borislav Banjac & Veselinka Zečević & Svetlana Roljević Nikolić & Helena Majstorović & Radiša Đorđević & Desimir Knežević, 2022. "Assessment of Genotype Stress Tolerance as an Effective Way to Sustain Wheat Production under Salinity Stress Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Dong, Liming & Lei, Guoqing & Huang, Jiesheng & Zeng, Wenzhi, 2023. "Improving crop modeling in saline soils by predicting root length density dynamics with machine learning algorithms," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    4. Hesham M. Aboelsoud & Mohamed A. E. AbdelRahman & Ahmed M. S. Kheir & Mona S. M. Eid & Khalil A. Ammar & Tamer H. Khalifa & Antonio Scopa, 2022. "Quantitative Estimation of Saline-Soil Amelioration Using Remote-Sensing Indices in Arid Land for Better Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Bijnens, Gert & Anyfantaki, Sofia & Colciago, Andrea & De Mulder, Jan & Falck, Elisabeth & Labhard, Vincent & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Meriküll, Jaanika & Parker, Miles & Röhe, Oke & Schroth, Joachim & , 2024. "The impact of climate change and policies on productivity," Occasional Paper Series 340, European Central Bank.
    6. Mădălina Trușcă & Ștefania Gâdea & Roxana Vidican & Vlad Stoian & Anamaria Vâtcă & Claudia Balint & Valentina Ancuța Stoian & Melinda Horvat & Sorin Vâtcă, 2023. "Exploring the Research Challenges and Perspectives in Ecophysiology of Plants Affected by Salinity Stress," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    7. Wang, Yayu & Muhammad, Tahir & Liu, Zeyuan & Ma, Changjian & Zhang, Changsheng & Wang, Zhenhua & He, Xin & Li, Yunkai, 2022. "Compounding with humic acid improved nutrient uniformity in drip fertigation system using brackish water: The perspective of emitter clogging," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).

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