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Impact of high-speed rail on road traffic and greenhouse gas emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Yatang Lin

    (HKUST, Clear Water Bay)

  • Yu Qin

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Jing Wu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Mandi Xu

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Carbon emission reduction in the transportation sector is essential in the global mitigation effort, and a large-scale public transport system has the potential to be an effective instrument. High-speed rail (HSR) is one such example, yet it is unclear how much reduction in road traffic results from new rail routes. Using the difference-in-differences method, we show that new HSR routes in China lead to a 20.5 log-point reduction in the number of passenger vehicles and a 15.7 log-point reduction in freight vehicles running on parallel highways. These reductions were not seen on ordinary national roads. These effects translate into an annual reduction of 11.183 million tons of CO2 equivalent of GHG emissions or 1.33% of GHG emissions in China’s transport sector. This mitigation effect mainly comes from the substitution of highway goods transport with the conventional railway instead of the direct replacement of highway passenger transport with HSRs. The environmental benefit of HSR in China has not been fully realized because of the thermal-dominated electricity supply. Our further projections suggest that in greener electricity conditions, the HSR in China can substantially contribute more to the reduction in GHG emissions from the transport sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Yatang Lin & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Mandi Xu, 2021. "Impact of high-speed rail on road traffic and greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(11), pages 952-957, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01190-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01190-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiangjing Zeng & Yong Ma & Jie Ren & Biao He, 2022. "Analysis of the Green Development Effects of High-Speed Railways Based on Eco-Efficiency: Evidence from Multisource Remote Sensing and Statistical Data of Urban Agglomerations in the Middle Reaches of," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Hehua Zhao & Hongwen Chen & Ying Fang & Apei Song, 2022. "Transfer Characteristics of Embodied Carbon Emissions in Export Trade—Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Tian Ma & Xiaobao Wei & Shuai Liu & Yilong Ren, 2022. "MGCAF: A Novel Multigraph Cross-Attention Fusion Method for Traffic Speed Prediction," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Ding, Feng & Yang, Jianping & Zhou, Zan, 2023. "Economic profits and carbon reduction potential of photovoltaic power generation for China's high-speed railway infrastructure," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
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    6. Cao, Jing & Ma, Rong, 2023. "Mitigating agricultural fires with carrot or stick? Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    7. Shao, Z. & Wang, Z.G. & Poredoš, P. & Ge, T.S. & Wang, R.Z., 2023. "Highly efficient desiccant-coated heat exchanger-based heat pump to decarbonize rail transportation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    8. Yang, Xutao & Wu, Jianhong & Zong, Yueqi & Wang, Chao, 2023. "Are China's HSR tariff affordable and economic equitable? An international comparison perspective," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Huang, Guizao & Wu, Guangning & Yang, Zefeng & Chen, Xing & Wei, Wenfu, 2023. "Development of surrogate models for evaluating energy transfer quality of high-speed railway pantograph-catenary system using physics-based model and machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    10. Xu, Xin & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian M. & An, Haizhong, 2023. "The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Xin Nie & Jianxian Wu & Han Wang & Weijuan Li & Chengdao Huang & Lihua Li, 2022. "Contributing to carbon peak: Estimating the causal impact of eco‐industrial parks on low‐carbon development in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1578-1593, August.
    12. Forouhar, Amir, 2022. "Rail transit station and neighbourhood change: A mixed-method analysis with respect to neighbourhood context," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Heng Li & Wei Wang, 2022. "The Road to Low Carbon: Can the Opening of High-Speed Railway Reduce the Level of Urban Carbon Emissions?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Zhang, Ze & Guo, Yuchen & Feng, Li, 2022. "Externalities of dockless bicycle-sharing systems: Implications for green recovery of the transportation sector," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 410-419.
    15. Wang, Yunmin & Cao, Guohua & Yan, Youliang & Wang, Jingjing, 2022. "Does high-speed rail stimulate cross-city technological innovation collaboration? Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 119-131.
    16. Di Matteo, Dante & Cardinale, Bernardo, 2023. "Impact of high-speed rail on income inequalities in Italy," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    17. Wu, Shuping & Han, Dan, 2022. "Accessibility of high-speed rail (HSR) stations and HSR–air competition: Evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 262-284.
    18. Chong Ye & Yanhong Zheng & Shanlang Lin & Zhaoyang Zhao, 2022. "The Impact of High-Speed Railway Opening on Regional Economic Growth: The Case of the Wuhan–Guangzhou High-Speed Railway Line," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    19. Sining Zhu & Zhou Zhou & Ran Li & Wenxing Li, 2022. "Impact of High-Speed Rail Construction on the Environmental Sustainability of China’s Three Major Urban Agglomerations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, February.
    20. Meng, Conghui & Du, Xiaoyun & Zhu, Mengcheng & Ren, Yitian & Fang, Kai, 2023. "The static and dynamic carbon emission efficiency of transport industry in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    21. Bo Yang & Yaping Yang & Yangxiaoyue Liu & Xiafang Yue, 2022. "Spatial Structure Evolution and Economic Benefits of Rapidly Expanding the High-Speed Rail Network in Developing Regions: A Case Study in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-20, November.
    22. Nie, Liang & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2023. "Is high-speed rail heading towards a low-carbon industry? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    23. Wu, Jianxian & Nie, Xin & Wang, Han, 2023. "Curse to blessing: The carbon emissions trading system and resource-based cities' carbon mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    24. Li, Zongxin & Wang, Qingyu & Cai, Mengshan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2023. "Impacts of high-speed rail on the industrial developments of non-central cities in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 203-216.

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