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Three-Regime Asymmetric STAR Modeling and Exchange Rate Reversion

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  • MARIO CERRATO
  • HYUNSOK KIM
  • RONALD MACDONALD

Abstract

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized floating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncertainty. This increased volatility leads economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. In the present paper, we propose more general STAR transition functions that encompass both threshold nonlinearity and asymmetric effects. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment from one regime to another and considers threshold effects by encompassing other existing models, such as TAR models. We apply our methodology to three different exchange rate data sets: one for developing countries and official nominal exchange rates, the second for emerging market economies using black market exchange rates, and the third for OECD economies. Copyright (c) 2010 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 42 (2010)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 1447-1467

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:7:p:1447-1467

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
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  3. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Technical Appendix-3-Regime asymmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion," Working Papers 2009_26, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
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  11. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Testing for a Unit Root against Transitional Autoregressive Models," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000316, UCLA Department of Economics.
  13. George Kapetanios & Y. Shin & A. Snell, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root against Nonlinear STAR Models," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  14. Sollis, Robert & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Tests for Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 686-700, August.
  15. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  16. Mario Cerrato & Nicholas Sarantis, 2007. "Does purchasing power parity hold in emerging markets? Evidence from a panel of black market exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 427-444.
  17. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: does one size fit all?," Working Papers halshs-00559170, HAL.

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