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Analysis of Metro ridership at station level and station-to-station level in Nanjing: an approach based on direct demand models

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  • Jinbao Zhao
  • Wei Deng
  • Yan Song
  • Yueran Zhu

Abstract

A growing base of research adopts direct demand models to reveal associations between transit ridership and influence factors in recent years. This study is designed to investigate the factors affecting rail transit ridership at both station level and station-to-station level by adopting multiple regression model and multiplicative model respectively, specifically using an implemented Metro system in Nanjing, China, where Metro implementation is on the rise. Independent variables include factors measuring land-use mix, intermodal connection, station context, and travel impedance. Multiple regression model proves 11 variables are significantly associated with Metro ridership at station level: population, employment, business/office floor area, CBD dummy variable, number of major educational sites, entertainment venues and shopping centers, road length, feeder bus lines, bicycle park-and-ride (P&R) spaces, and transfer dummy variable. Results from multiplicative model indicate that factors influencing Metro station ridership may also influence Metro station-to-station ridership, varied by both trip ends (origin/destination) and time of day. In comparison with previous case studies, CBD dummy variable and bicycle P&R are statistically significant to explain Metro ridership in Nanjing. In addition, Metro travel impedance variables have significant influence on station-to-station ridership, representing the basic time-decay relationship in travel distribution. Potential implications of the model results include estimating Metro ridership at station level and station-to-station level by considering the significant variables, recognizing the necessity to establish a cooperative multi-modal transit system, and identifying opportunities for transit-oriented development. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

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  • Jinbao Zhao & Wei Deng & Yan Song & Yueran Zhu, 2014. "Analysis of Metro ridership at station level and station-to-station level in Nanjing: an approach based on direct demand models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 133-155, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:133-155
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-013-9492-3
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    5. Du, Qiang & Zhou, Yuqing & Huang, Youdan & Wang, Yalei & Bai, Libiao, 2022. "Spatiotemporal exploration of the non-linear impacts of accessibility on metro ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
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    12. Chuan Ding & Donggen Wang & Xiaolei Ma & Haiying Li, 2016. "Predicting Short-Term Subway Ridership and Prioritizing Its Influential Factors Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Wei Yu & Hua Bai & Jun Chen & Xingchen Yan, 2019. "Analysis of Space-Time Variation of Passenger Flow and Commuting Characteristics of Residents Using Smart Card Data of Nanjing Metro," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-19, September.
    14. Zhuangbin Shi & Ning Zhang & Yang Liu & Wei Xu, 2018. "Exploring Spatiotemporal Variation in Hourly Metro Ridership at Station Level: The Influence of Built Environment and Topological Structure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Xia Li & Zhenyu Liu & Xinwei Ma, 2022. "Measuring Access and Egress Distance and Catchment Area of Multiple Feeding Modes for Metro Transferring Using Survey Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Tu, Wei & Cao, Rui & Yue, Yang & Zhou, Baoding & Li, Qiuping & Li, Qingquan, 2018. "Spatial variations in urban public ridership derived from GPS trajectories and smart card data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 45-57.
    17. Gao, Fan & Yang, Linchuan & Han, Chunyang & Tang, Jinjun & Li, Zhitao, 2022. "A network-distance-based geographically weighted regression model to examine spatiotemporal effects of station-level built environments on metro ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Suchi Kapoor Malhotra & Howard White & Nina Ashley O. Dela Cruz & Ashrita Saran & John Eyers & Denny John & Ella Beveridge & Nina Blöndal, 2021. "Studies of the effectiveness of transport sector interventions in low‐ and middle‐income countries: An evidence and gap map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), December.
    19. Park, Chung & Lee, Jungpyo & Sohn, So Young, 2019. "Recommendation of feeder bus routes using neural network embedding-based optimization," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 329-341.
    20. Lijie Yu & Yarong Cong & Kuanmin Chen, 2020. "Determination of the Peak Hour Ridership of Metro Stations in Xi’an, China Using Geographically-Weighted Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, March.
    21. Ding, Chuan & Cao, Xinyu & Liu, Chao, 2019. "How does the station-area built environment influence Metrorail ridership? Using gradient boosting decision trees to identify non-linear thresholds," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-78.

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