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All agreed: Aumann meets DeGroot

Author

Listed:
  • Jan-Willem Romeijn

    (University of Groningen)

  • Olivier Roy

    (Uni Bayreuth)

Abstract

We represent consensus formation processes based on iterated opinion pooling (DeGroot in J Am Stat Assoc 69:118–121, 1974; Lehrer and Wagner in Rational consensus in science and society: a philosophical and mathematical study. Springer, Berlin, 1981) as a dynamic approach to common knowledge of posteriors (Aumann in Ann Stat 4(6):1236–1239, 1976; Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis in J Econ Theory 28:192–200, 1982). We thus provide a concrete and plausible Bayesian rationalization of consensus through iterated pooling. The link clarifies the conditions under which iterated pooling can be rationalized from a Bayesian perspective, and offers an understanding of iterated pooling in terms of higher-order beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Willem Romeijn & Olivier Roy, 2018. "All agreed: Aumann meets DeGroot," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 85(1), pages 41-60, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:85:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11238-017-9633-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-017-9633-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geanakoplos, John D. & Polemarchakis, Heraklis M., 1982. "We can't disagree forever," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 192-200, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghosh, Aniruddha & Khan, M. Ali, 2021. "On a diversity of perspectives and world views: Learning under Bayesian vis-á-vis DeGroot updating," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

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