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Investor sentiment and bitcoin prices

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Koutmos

    (Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi)

Abstract

Using a rich data set of transaction-level buy and sell orders from the major digital currency exchange Coinbase, we formulate a measure for investor sentiment and shed new evidence on the sentiment-return relation for bitcoin. Using a bootstrapped quantile regression procedure we show a significant and robust relation between rising sentiment and price increases, and vice versa, across the distribution of bitcoin price changes. This relation is shown to be robust when controlling for a variety of exchange-specific and blockchain-wide variables. This relation is also robust when controlling for aggregate momentum across major cryptocurrencies. This finding is important as our data sample spans a period before and after the introduction of futures markets for bitcoin, which has arguably resulted in a regime shift in the time series behavior of its price. Taken together, our results show that bitcoin prices can undergo regime changes and that conventional regression-type models that focus on the center of the distribution of bitcoin price changes can yield misleading estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Koutmos, 2023. "Investor sentiment and bitcoin prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 1-29, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:60:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-022-01086-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-022-01086-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A. H. Nzokem, 2023. "Bitcoin versus S&P 500 Index: Return and Risk Analysis," Papers 2310.02436, arXiv.org.
    2. Dimitrios Koutmos & Wang Chun Wei, 2023. "Nowcasting bitcoin’s crash risk with order imbalance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 125-154, July.
    3. Shubham Singh & Mayur Bhat, 2024. "Transformer-based approach for Ethereum Price Prediction Using Crosscurrency correlation and Sentiment Analysis," Papers 2401.08077, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Bootstrap; Investor sentiment; Quantile regression; Robustness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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