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Managing earnings risk under SFAS 133/IAS 39: the case of cash flow hedges

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  • Dennis Frestad

    (University of Agder)

Abstract

Whereas empirical studies suggest that firm hedging is influenced by accounting standards such as SFAS 133 and IAS 39, the nature of earnings risk management remains a puzzle. I develop a model that shows how non-financial firms that prefer predictable earnings jointly optimize their hedging strategy and the choice between fair-value and hedge accounting. I also examine the implications of these decisions for earnings predictability under SFAS 133/IAS 39. In this model, which has two accounting periods, earnings uncertainty arises from economic shocks and accounting mismatches. The specific influence of accounting mismatches is isolated with two benchmarks, one for firm hedging (cash flow hedging) and another for an accounting system that fully complies with the matching principle. In this forward-looking analysis, most firms significantly decrease the hedging of long-term earnings when faced with persistent price dynamics. Under non-persistent price dynamics, the levels of long-term earnings hedging are only slightly reduced. Therefore, the influence of accounting mismatches on firm hedging is highly dependent on the economic environment in which a firm operates, which suggests that the potential influence of accounting on firm hedging may be difficult to identify in archival studies. The analysis also offers a forward-looking perspective on the changing properties of earnings since the late 1970s that supplements the existing body of archival accounting studies. For example, under persistent price dynamics, forward-looking short-term earnings volatility may increase tenfold or more for cash flow hedging under fair-value accounting compared with a perfectly matched accounting system.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Frestad, 2018. "Managing earnings risk under SFAS 133/IAS 39: the case of cash flow hedges," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 159-197, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:51:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0667-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-017-0667-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SFAS 133; IAS 39; Fair-value accounting; Cash flow hedge accounting; Cash flow hedge; Earnings predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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