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IMF Support and Inter-Regime Exchange Rate Volatility

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Author Info

  • Ivo Arnold

    ()

  • Ronald MacDonald

    ()

  • Casper Vries

    ()

Abstract

A widely held notion is that freely floating exchange rates are excessively volatile when moving from fixed to floating exchange rates. We re-examine the data and conclude that the disparity between the fundamentals and exchange rate volatility is more apparent than real, especially when the Deutsche Mark, rather than the dollar, is chosen as the numeraire currency. We argue and demonstrate that in inter-regime comparisons one has to account for certain ‘missing variables’ which compensate for the fundamental variables’ volatility under fixed exchange rates. We show that IMF credit support is a crucial compensating variable.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-011-9231-3
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 23 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 193-211

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:23:y:2012:i:1:p:193-211

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: Exchange rates; Exchange rate regimes; Excess volatility; IMF credit; F31;

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  2. Duarte, Margarida, 2003. "Why don't macroeconomic quantities respond to exchange rate variability?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 889-913, May.
  3. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Alan C. Stockman, 1978. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," UCLA Economics Working Papers 122, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  6. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F660-72, November.
  8. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
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