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Purchasing Power Parity: Error Correction Models and Structural Breaks

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  • Amalia Zumaquero
  • Rodrigo Urrea
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    Abstract

    This paper examines purchasing power parity (PPP) behavior using error correction models (ECM) and allowing for structural breaks. We distinguish four different objectives: first, this paper examines which variable or variables (the exchange rate and/or international relative prices) exhibit a significant error correction mechanism. Second, this paper presents empirical evidence about the adjustment velocity to the long-run equilibrium. Third, it examines the evidence regarding cointegration and the adjustment coefficients parameter instability, and finally, it analyzes whether traded and non-traded sectors exhibit different behavior. The most important results are: (1) the predominant adjustment is in the exchange rate with a larger velocity adjustment than in relative prices; (2) the evidence suggests that when there are strong depreciations or appreciations in the exchange rate, the international relative prices adjust (i.e., there is evidence of pass-through); (3) the dynamic adjustment to equilibrium is, in general, stable. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1012298028415
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

    Volume (Year): 13 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 5-26

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:13:y:2002:i:1:p:5-26

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

    Related research

    Keywords: purchasing power parity; error correction models; multiple structural breaks;

    References

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    1. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
    2. Rogers, J.H. & Jenkins, M.A., 1993. "Haircuts or Hysteresis? Sources of Movements in Real Exchange Rates," Papers 4-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    3. Hali J. Edison & Jan Tore Klovland, 1983. "A quantitative reassessment of the purchasing power parity hypothesis : evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 231, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-84, February.
    5. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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    7. Dutton, Marilyn & Strauss, Jack, 1997. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity: the impact of non-traded goods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 433-444, June.
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    12. Tronzano, Marco, 1992. "Long-Run purchasing Power Parity and Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: A Further Assessment," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 45(1), pages 77-100.
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    17. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Simos, Theodore, 2013. "Testing purchasing power parity for Japan and the US: A structural-break approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 53-59.
    2. repec:got:cegedp:89 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. HOLMES, Mark J, 2008. "Non-Linear Trend Stationarity And Co-Trending In Latin American Real Exchange Rates," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 107-118.
    4. Kühl, Michael, 2009. "Excess comovements between the Euro/US dollar and British pound/US dollar exchange rates," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 89, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Mark Holmes, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Stationarity in Latin America and Relative Purchasing Power Parity: A Regime Switching Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 261-275, April.

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