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Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models

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Author Info

  • Henrik Hansen

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Søren Johansen

    (Institute of Mathematical Statistics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR-model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively based upon the likelihood function for the first observations, and another in which the cointegrating relations are estimated recursively from a likelihood function, where the short-run parameters have been concentrated out. We suggest graphical procedures based on recursively estimated eigenvalues to evaluate the constancy of the long-run parameters in the model. Specifically, we look at the time paths of the eigenvalues using a new result on the asymptotic distribution of the estimated eigenvalues. Furthermore, we show that the fluctuation test by Ploberger et al. (1989) and the Lagrange multiplier (LM) type test for constancy of parameters by Nyblom (1989) can be applied to test the constancy of the long-run parameters in the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US Treasury securities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 92-13.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1992
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as: "Some Tests for Parameter Constancy in Cointegrated VAR-Models", in Econometrics Journal, 1999, 2(2) pp. 306-333.
Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:9213

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Keywords: determination of interest rates; VAR; USA;

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Cited by:
  1. Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
  2. Amalia Zumaquero & Rodrigo Urrea, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity: Error Correction Models and Structural Breaks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 5-26, January.
  3. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0103, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Brian M. Lucey & Edel Tully, 2006. "The evolving relationship between gold and silver 1978--2002: evidence from a dynamic cointegration analysis: a note," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 47-53, January.
  5. Salvatore Capasso & Oreste Napolitano, 2008. "Testing for the stability of money demand in italy: has the euro influenced the monetary transmission mechanism?," Working Papers 2_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  6. Urban, Dieter M., 2007. "Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 470-488, December.
  7. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Assessing the integration of Asia's equity and bond markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Regional financial integration in Asia: present and future, volume 42, pages 1-37 Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Manolis Syllignakis & Georgios Kouretas, 2010. "German, US and Central and Eastern European Stock Market Integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 607-628, September.
  9. Filippo Cesarano & Giulio Cifarelli & Gianni Toniolo, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Reserve Policy on the Periphery: The Italian Lira 1883-1911," Working Papers - Economics wp2009_11.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  10. A. Arize & J. Malindretos & Z. Obi, 2002. "Long- and short-term interest rates in 19 countries: Tests of cointegration and parameter instability," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(2), pages 105-120, June.
  11. Daniela Sonedda, 2006. "A structural VAR approach on labour taxation policies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 95-114.
  12. Oikarinen, Elias, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  13. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2011. "Modeling life expectancy in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2075-2082, September.
  14. Oliver Hülsewig & Peter Winker & Andreas Worms, 2004. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission: A VECM Analysis for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 224(5), pages 511-529, September.
  15. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2010. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," MPRA Paper 29579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. A. Arize, 2000. "U.S. petroleum consumption behavior and oil price uncertainty: Tests of cointegration and parameter instability," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 463-477, December.
  17. Ulrike Neyer & Jürgen Wiemers, 2004. "The Influence of a Heterogeneous Banking Sector on the Interbank Market Rate in the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(III), pages 395-428, September.
  18. Harrison, Barry & Moore, Winston, 2009. "Stock Market Como Vement In The European Union And Transition Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 13(3), pages 124-151.

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