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Estimating representations of time preferences and models of probabilistic intertemporal choice on experimental data

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  • Pavlo R. Blavatskyy

    (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier Research in Management)

  • Hela Maafi

    (Université Paris 8)

Abstract

We here estimate a number of alternatives to discounted-utility theory, such as quasi-hyperbolic discounting, generalized hyperbolic discounting, and rank-dependent discounted utility with three different models of probabilistic choice. The data come from a controlled laboratory experiment designed to reveal individual time preferences in two rounds of 100 binary-choice problems. Rank-dependent discounted utility and its special case—the maximization of present discounted value—turn out to be the best-fitting theory (for about two-thirds of all subjects). For a great majority of subjects (72%), the representation of time preferences in Luce’s choice model provides the best fit.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlo R. Blavatskyy & Hela Maafi, 2018. "Estimating representations of time preferences and models of probabilistic intertemporal choice on experimental data," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 259-287, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:56:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11166-018-9281-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-018-9281-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Kulati, Ellam & Myck, Michał & Pasini, Giacomo, 2023. "Temporal discounting in later life," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 87-101.
    2. Fabien Perez & Guillaume Hollard & Radu Vranceanu, 2021. "How serious is the measurement-error problem in risk-aversion tasks?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 319-342, December.
    3. Stephen L. Cheung, 2020. "Eliciting utility curvature in time preference," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 493-525, June.
    4. Pavlo R. Blavatskyy, 2022. "Intertemporal choice as a tradeoff between cumulative payoff and average delay," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 89-107, February.
    5. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2018. "Fechner’s strong utility model for choice among n>2 alternatives: Risky lotteries, Savage acts, and intertemporal payoffs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 75-82.
    6. Pavlo Blavatskyy, 2020. "Expected discounted utility," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 88(2), pages 297-313, March.
    7. Blavatskyy, Pavlo, 2019. "Future plans and errors," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 85-92.
    8. Holden, Stein T. & Tilahun, Mesfin & Sommervoll, Dag Einar, 2020. "Magnitude Effects and Utility Curvature in Inter-temporal Choice," CLTS Working Papers 8/20, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies.
    9. Zhihua Li & Graham Loomes, 2022. "Revisiting the diagnosis of intertemporal preference reversals," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 19-41, February.
    10. David Scrogin, 2023. "Estimating risk and time preferences over public lotteries: Findings from the field and stream," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 73-106, August.
    11. Pavlo R. Blavatskyy & Hela Maafi, 2020. "A new test of convexity–concavity of discount function," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 89(2), pages 121-136, September.
    12. Pavlo R. Blavatskyy, 2020. "Dual choice axiom and probabilistic choice," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 25-41, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intertemporal choice; Time preference; Discounted utility; Quasi-hyperbolic discounting; Rank-dependent discounted utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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