Forecasting the Malmquist productivity index
AbstractThe Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) suggests a convenient way of measuring the productivity change of a given unit between two consequent time periods. Until now, only a static approach for analyzing the MPI was available in the literature. However, this hides a potentially valuable information given by the evolution of productivity over time. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic procedure for forecasting the MPI. We compare several approaches and give credit to a method based on the assumption of circularity. Because the MPI is not circular, we present a new decomposition of the MPI, in which the time-varying indices are circular. Based on that decomposition, a new working dynamic forecasting procedure is proposed and illustrated. To construct prediction intervals of the MPI, we extend the bootstrap method in order to take into account potential serial correlation in the data. We illustrate all the new techniques described above by forecasting the productivityt index of 17 OCDE countries, constructed from their GDP, labor and capital stock.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Productivity Analysis.
Volume (Year): 33 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100296
Malmquist productivity index; Circularity; Efficiency; Smooth bootstrap; Forecasting intervals;
Other versions of this item:
- Daskovska, Alexandra & Simar, Léopold & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2009. "Forecasting the Malmquist Productivity Index," IDEI Working Papers 634, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Daskovska, Alexandra & Simar, Léopold & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2009. "Forecasting the Malmquist Productivity Index," TSE Working Papers 09-048, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- SIMAR, Léopold & WILSON, Paul, 1996.
"Estimating and bootstrapping malmquist indices,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1996060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
- SIMAR, Léopold & WILSON, Paul W., 1998.
"Productivity growth in industrialized countries,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1998036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Van Bellegem, Sebastien & von Sachs, Rainer, 2004. "Forecasting economic time series with unconditional time-varying variance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 611-627.
- Finn R. Førsund, 2002. "On the circularity of the Malmquist productivity index," ICER Working Papers 29-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "Multilateral Comparisons of Output, Input, and Productivity Using Superlative Index Numbers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 73-86, March.
- Léopold Simar & Paul Wilson, 2000.
"Statistical Inference in Nonparametric Frontier Models: The State of the Art,"
Journal of Productivity Analysis,
Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 49-78, January.
- Simar, L. & Wilson, P.W., 1999. "Statistical Inference in Nonparametric Frontier Models: the State of the Art," Papers 9904, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Fare, Rolf & Shawna Grosskopf & Mary Norris & Zhongyang Zhang, 1994. "Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Change in Industrialized Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 66-83, March.
- Oulton,Nicholas & O'Mahony,Mary, 1994. "Productivity and Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521453455, April.
- Jakub Growiec, 2013.
"On the measurement of technological progress across countries,"
Bank i Kredyt,
National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 44(5), pages 467-504.
- Jakub Growiec, 2010. "On the measurement of technological progress across countries," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 73, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Growiec, Jakub, 2009. "On the Measurement of Technological Progress Across Countries," MPRA Paper 19321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonio Peyrache, 2013. "Multilateral productivity comparisons and homotheticity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 57-65, August.
- Mayer, Andreas & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2014.
"Aggregation of Malmquist productivity indexes allowing for reallocation of resources,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 238(3), pages 774-785.
- Valentin Zelenyuk & Andreas Mayer, 2013. "Aggregation of Malmquist productivity indexes allowing for reallocation of resources," CEPA Working Papers Series WP062013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Andreas Mayer & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2014. "An Aggregation Paradigm for Hicks-Moorsteen Productivity Indexes," CEPA Working Papers Series WP012014, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.