IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/fmktpm/v36y2022i1d10.1007_s11408-021-00387-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio Selection with Irregular Time Grids: an example using an ICA-COGARCH(1, 1) approach

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bianchi

    (Independent
    University of Milan
    CREST Japan Science and Technology Agency)

  • Lorenzo Mercuri

    (University of Milan
    CREST Japan Science and Technology Agency)

  • Edit Rroji

    (University of Milano-Bicocca)

Abstract

In this paper we consider a portfolio selection problem defined for irregularly spaced observations. We use the Independent Component Analysis for the identification of the dependence structure and continuous-time GARCH models for the marginals. We discuss both estimation and simulation of market prices in a context where the time grid of price quotations differs across assets. We present an empirical analysis of the proposed approach using two high-frequency datasets that provides better out-of-sample results than competing portfolio strategies except for the case of severe market conditions with frequent rebalancements.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bianchi & Lorenzo Mercuri & Edit Rroji, 2022. "Portfolio Selection with Irregular Time Grids: an example using an ICA-COGARCH(1, 1) approach," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(1), pages 57-85, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:36:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11408-021-00387-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-021-00387-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11408-021-00387-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11408-021-00387-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Babaei, Sadra & Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi & Babaei, Edris, 2015. "Multi-objective portfolio optimization considering the dependence structure of asset returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(2), pages 525-539.
    2. Ross A. Maller & Gernot Muller & Alex Szimayer, 2008. "GARCH modelling in continuous time for irregularly spaced time series data," Papers 0805.2096, arXiv.org.
    3. Stefano M. Iacus & Lorenzo Mercuri & Edit Rroji, 2018. "Discrete‐Time Approximation of a Cogarch(p,q) Model and its Estimation," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 787-809, September.
    4. Dilip Madan, 2006. "Equilibrium asset pricing: with non-Gaussian factors and exponential utilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 455-463.
    5. Simon A. Broda & Marc S. Paolella, 2009. "CHICAGO: A Fast and Accurate Method for Portfolio Risk Calculation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 412-436, Fall.
    6. Hitaj, Asmerilda & Mercuri, Lorenzo & Rroji, Edit, 2015. "Portfolio selection with independent component analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 146-159.
    7. Szimayer, Alex & Maller, Ross A., 2007. "Finite approximation schemes for Lévy processes, and their application to optimal stopping problems," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(10), pages 1422-1447, October.
    8. Yoshida, Nakahiro, 1992. "Estimation for diffusion processes from discrete observation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 220-242, May.
    9. Stefano Iacus & Lorenzo Mercuri, 2015. "Implementation of Lévy CARMA model in Yuima package," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 1111-1141, December.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    11. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    12. Iacus, Stefano M. & Mercuri, Lorenzo & Rroji, Edit, 2017. "COGARCH(p, q): Simulation and Inference with the yuima Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 80(i04).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iacus, Stefano M. & Mercuri, Lorenzo & Rroji, Edit, 2017. "COGARCH(p, q): Simulation and Inference with the yuima Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 80(i04).
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Dobrev, Dobrislav, 2007. "No-arbitrage semi-martingale restrictions for continuous-time volatility models subject to leverage effects, jumps and i.i.d. noise: Theory and testable distributional implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 125-180, May.
    4. Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2009. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models," CARF F-Series CARF-F-189, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
    6. Matei, Marius, 2011. "Non-Linear Volatility Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series Using High Frequency Data," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 116-141, June.
    7. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2012. "Modelling and forecasting noisy realized volatility," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 217-230, January.
    8. Janus, Paweł & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2014. "Long memory dynamics for multivariate dependence under heavy tails," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 187-206.
    9. Müller, Gernot & Durand, Robert B. & Maller, Ross A., 2011. "The risk-return tradeoff: A COGARCH analysis of Merton's hypothesis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 306-320, March.
    10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Huang, Xin, 2011. "A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 176-189, January.
    11. Marc S. Paolella, 2016. "Stable-GARCH Models for Financial Returns: Fast Estimation and Tests for Stability," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-28, May.
    12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Per Frederiksen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2010. "Continuous-time models, realized volatilities, and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 233-261.
    13. Stelzer, Robert, 2009. "First jump approximation of a Lévy-driven SDE and an application to multivariate ECOGARCH processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(6), pages 1932-1951, June.
    14. Papanicolaou, Alex & Giesecke, Kay, 2016. "Variation-based tests for volatility misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 217-230.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Li, Sophia Zhengzi, 2013. "Jump tails, extreme dependencies, and the distribution of stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 307-324.
    16. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski, 2009. "High-Frequency and Model-Free Volatility Estimators," Working Papers 2009-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    17. Vica Tendenan & Richard Gerlach & Chao Wang, 2020. "Tail risk forecasting using Bayesian realized EGARCH models," Papers 2008.05147, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    18. Ghysels, Eric, 2014. "Factor Analysis with Large Panels of Volatility Proxies," CEPR Discussion Papers 10034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Edit Rroji & Lorenzo Mercuri, 2015. "Mixed tempered stable distribution," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 1559-1569, September.
    20. Lorenzo Mercuri & Andrea Perchiazzo & Edit Rroji, 2020. "Finite Mixture Approximation of CARMA(p,q) Models," Papers 2005.10130, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Irregular grids; Independent Component Analysis; Continuous GARCH; Risk measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:36:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11408-021-00387-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.