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Will Ageing Lead to a Higher Real Exchange Rate for the Netherlands?

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Author Info

  • Casper Ewijk

    ()

  • Maikel Volkerink

    ()

Abstract

Long-term projections for the Netherlands indicate that demand for nontradables – e.g. health care services – will increase relative to supply due to population ageing. If this leads to higher future real exchanges rates this will erode the return of the savings currently made to prepare for ageing. This paper explores the magnitude of potential price effects using a modified version of the ‘two country, four commodity framework’ developed by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) to explore the exchange rate effects of the balance of payments reversal in the US. When these price effects are substantial, this may have serious consequences for policies to enhance national saving in the Netherlands.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10645-011-9182-5
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal De Economist.

Volume (Year): 160 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 59-80

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Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:160:y:2012:i:1:p:59-80

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100260

Related research

Keywords: Ageing; Trade balance; Nontradables; Real exchange rate; E60; F41; J11;

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References

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 5416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2004. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-036, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
  4. Iscan Talan, 2010. "How Much Can Engel's Law and Baumol's Disease Explain the Rise of Service Employment in the United States?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-43, September.
  5. Baldwin, Richard & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2014. "Trade-in-goods and trade-in-tasks: An integrating framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 51-62.
  6. Leon Bettendorf & A. Horst & N. Draper & C. Ewijk & R. Mooij & H. Rele, 2011. "Ageing and the Conflict of Interest Between Generations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 257-278, September.
  7. Axel Boersch-Supan, 2001. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," NBER Working Papers 8640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
  9. Bart Hobijn & David Lagakos, 2003. "Social security and the consumer price index for the elderly," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(May).
  10. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
  11. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2014. "Relative Sectoral Prices and Population Ageing: A Common Trend," Working Paper Series in Economics 69, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.

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