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Residential Land Prices Prior to Development

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This paper tests various hypotheses related to expectations and the value of undeveloped land. Evidence is found to support the hypothesis by Capozza and Helsley (1989) that the price of land in rapidly growing cities reflects a significant premium based upon expectations about future growth. There is also evidence that this premium varies from less than 40% of land value during down times to over 70% during boom times. Additional hypotheses tested related to development expectations for smaller geographic areas within the market. Land values reflect forecasts of employment up to five or six years into the future for nine square mile planning areas. The level of residential development activity from two to three miles around individual parcels is also capitalized into value. Much of the value of urban land may be explained by the growth rate of the metropolitan area and micro-geographic factors related to individual parcels.

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  • Karl Guntermann, 1997. "Residential Land Prices Prior to Development," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:14:n:1:1997:p:1-18
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    1. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    2. Arnott, Richard J & Lewis, Frank D, 1979. "The Transition of Land to Urban Use," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 161-169, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans R. Isakson & Mark D. Ecker, 2001. "An Analysis of the Influence of Location in the Market for Undeveloped Urban Fringe Land," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(1), pages 30-41.
    2. Elias Oikarinen, 2009. "Dynamic linkages between housing and lot prices: Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Discussion Papers 53, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    3. Jing Li & Ying Xu, 2016. "Evaluating restrictive measures containing housing prices in China: A data envelopment analysis approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(12), pages 2654-2669, September.
    4. Jeanty, Pierre Wilner & Kraybill, David S. & Libby, Lawrence W. & Sohngen, Brent, 2002. "Effects Of Local Development Pressure On Land Prices: A Spatial Economic Approach," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19767, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Luis H.R. Alvarez & Jukka Lempa & Elias Oikarinen, 2009. "Do Standard Real Option Models Overestimate the Required Rate of Return of Real Estate Investment Opportunities?," Discussion Papers 52, Aboa Centre for Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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