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Past and Future Sources of Real Estate Returns in Hong Kong

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    Abstract

    Historical commercial real estate returns are attributed to three fundamental factors: initial current yield, growth in net operating income, and changes in going-in versus going-out capitalization rates (i.e., pricing movements). Separating returns into these three factors appears to provide more insightful information than the traditionally reported income and appreciation returns. Using this three-factor model, historical real returns and inflation pass-through rates are estimated for each major type of real estate (residential A/B/C, residential D/E, office, retail, industrial).

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol13n03/v13p251.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 13 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 251-272

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:13:n:3:1997:p:251-272

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal-Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481.
    2. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
    3. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-46, June.
    4. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    5. Jack H. Rubens & Michael T. Bond & James R. Webb, 1989. "The Inflation-Hedging Effectiveness of Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 4(2), pages 45-56.
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