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Eine verteilungspolitische Beurteilung aktueller Reformkonzepte zur deutschen Einkommmensbesteuerung

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  • Georg Struch

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    (Universität Potsdam)

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    Abstract

    The present paper investigates potential fiscal and distributional effects which emerge due to four reform scenarios on the German income tax rate. The analysis is based on a static simulation model for the German tax system using income tax micro-data. The data shows that changing the present progressive tax system to a flat-tax, which was proposed by the FDP in 2010, could reduce the tax revenue by 15 billion Euro. Such a tax regime would increase the unequal distribution and polarisation of net incomes. The IW Ko¨ ln suggested an alternative tax rate in 2008. This regime would increase unequal distribution and polarisation of disposable incomes to a greater extent than the FDP-tax rate. An implementation of this income tax scale would go along with losses in tax revenue of 18.8 billion Euro. Likewise, the implementation of a 2009 SPD tax rate proposal would reduce tax revenue by 14.8 billion Euro. Although this regime would reduce unequal distribution, the effect on the polarization of disposable incomes is not definitely predictable. In contrast to all the other scenarios, the realisation of the recent SPD tax rate proposal from 2011 could enlarge tax revenue by 4.7 billion Euro. This tax regime would reduce unequal distribution and polarisation of disposable incomes even more than the present tax system.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 232 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 567-588

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    Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:232:y:2012:i:5:p:567-588

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    Keywords: Mikrosimulation; Polarisation; Einkommensverteilung; Einkommensteuerstatistik;

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    1. Jan Goebel & Martin Gornig & Hartmut Häußermann, 2010. "Polarisierung der Einkommen: die Mittelschicht verliert," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 77(24), pages 2-8.
    2. Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Schneider, Hilmar & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2011. "Bemessungsgrundlage schlägt Fünf-Stufen-Tarif: Eine Simulationsanalyse des Reformvorschlags nach Rose," IZA Standpunkte 36, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Joan-Maria Esteban & Debraj Ray, 1991. "On the Measurement of Polarization," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 18, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
    4. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Schaefer, Thilo, 2006. "Führt Steuervereinfachung zu einer "gerechteren" Einkommensverteilung? Eine empirische Analyse für Deutschland," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    5. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens, 2006. "Die Flat Tax: Wer gewinnt? Wer verliert? Eine empirische Analyse für Deutschland," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    6. Viktor Steiner, 2010. "Konsolidierung der Staatsfinanzen," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1003, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Schneider, Hilmar & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2010. "Alter Wein in neuen Schläuchen: Der Fünf-Stufen-Steuertarif der FDP auf dem Prüfstein," IZA Standpunkte 27, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Steiner, Viktor, 2010. "Konsolidierung der Staatsfinanzen," Discussion Papers 2010/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Jürgen Faik & Jens Becker, 2009. "Wohlstandspolarisierung, Verteilungskonflikte und Ungleichheitswahrnehmungen in Deutschland," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 256, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. Michael Broer, 2011. "Kalte Progression in der Einkommensbesteuerung," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer, vol. 91(10), pages 694-698, October.
    11. Joachim Merz, 2006. "Polarisierung der Einkommen von Selbständigen? Zur Dynamik der Einkommensverteilung und der hohen Einkommen von Selbstständigen und abhängig Beschäftigten," FFB-Discussionpaper 67, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
    12. Timm Bönke & Frank Neher & Carsten Schröder, 2007. "Bestimmung ökonomischer Einkommen und effektiver Einkommensteuerbelastungen mit der Faktisch Anonymisierten Lohn- und Einkommensteuerstatistik," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(4), pages 585-623.
    13. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Bergs, Christian & Schaefer, Thilo, 2006. "Reformoptionen der Familienbesteuerung - Aufkommens-, Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-8, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    14. Joan Esteban & Carlos Gradín & Debraj Ray, 2007. "An Extension of a Measure of Polarization, with an application to the income distribution of five OECD countries," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, April.
    15. Stefan Bach & Peter Haan & Hans-Joachim Rudolph & Viktor Steiner, 2004. "Reformkonzepte zur Einkommens- und Ertragsbesteuerung: erhebliche Aufkommens- und Verteilungswirkungen, aber relativ geringe Effekte auf das Arbeitsangebot," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(16), pages 185-204.
    16. Markus M. Grabka & Joachim R. Frick, 2008. "Schrumpfende Mittelschicht: Anzeichen einer dauerhaften Polarisierung der verfügbaren Einkommen?," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(10), pages 101-108.
    17. Roberto Ezcurra, 2009. "Does Income Polarization Affect Economic Growth? The Case of the European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 267-285.
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