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Housing Prices in Tokyo: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat Sales Measures

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Author Info

  • Chihiron Shimizu

    ()
    (Reitaku University, Japan)

  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

    ()
    (The Bank of Japan, Japan.)

  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    ()
    (Hitotsubashi University, Japan.)

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    Abstract

    Do indexes of house prices behave differently depending on the estimation method? If so, to what extent? To address these questions, we use a unique dataset that we compiled from individual listings in a widely circulated real estate advertisementmagazine. The dataset contains more than 470,000 listings of housing prices between 1986 and 2008, including the period of the housing bubble and its burst.We find that there exists a substantial discrepancy in terms of turning points between hedonic and repeat sales indexes, even though the hedonic index is adjusted for structural changes and the repeat sales index is adjusted in theway Case and Shiller suggested. Specifically, the repeat sales measure signals turning points later than the hedonic measure: for example, the hedonic measure of condominium prices bottomed out at the beginning of 2002, while the corresponding repeat sales measure exhibits a reversal only in the spring of 2004. This discrepancy cannot be fully removed even if we adjust the repeat sales index for depreciation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 230 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (December)
    Pages: 792-813

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    Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:230:y:2010:i:6:p:792-813

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    Related research

    Keywords: Hedonic price index; repeat sales price index; aggregation bias; housing depreciation;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Sun, Jian, 2006. "A simple alternative house price index method," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-97, March.
    2. McMillen, Daniel P., 2003. "The return of centralization to Chicago: using repeat sales to identify changes in house price distance gradients," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 287-304, May.
    3. Ivar Ekeland & James J. Heckman & Lars Nesheim, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 1031, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Clapp, John M & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1992. "Estimating Price Trends for Residential Property: A Comparison of Repeat Sales and Assessed Value Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 357-74, December.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
    7. Clapp, John M & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1998. "Price Indices Based on the Hedonic Repeat-Sales Method: Application to the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 5-26, January.
    8. Case, Bradford & Quigley, John M, 1991. "The Dynamics of Real Estate Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 50-58, February.
    9. Bradford Case & Henry O. Pollakowski & Susan M. Wachter, 1991. "On Choosing Among House Price Index Methodologies," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 286-307.
    10. de Haan, Jan & Diewert, Erwin & Hendriks, Rens, 2010. "The Decomposition of a House Price index into Land and Structures Components: A Hedonic Regression Approach," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2010-1, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 13 Jul 2010.
    11. Allen C. Goodman & Thomas G. Thibodeau, 1998. "Dwelling Age Heteroskedasticity in Repeat Sales House Price Equations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 151-171.
    12. K. Chau & S. Wong & C. Yiu, 2005. "Adjusting for Non-Linear Age Effects in the Repeat Sales Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 137-153, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2013. "Residential Property Price Indexes for Tokyo," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2013-16, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 11 Apr 2013.
    2. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Detecting Real Estate Bubbles: A New Approach Based on the Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Property Prices," CARF F-Series CARF-F-313, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    3. Diewert, W. Erwin & Nishimura , Kiyohiko & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2014. "Residential Property Price Indexes for Japan: An Outline of the Japanese Official RPPI," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2014-17, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 27 Mar 2014.
    4. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2012. "Detecting Real Estate Bubbles: A New Approach Based on the Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Property Prices," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 006, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Apr 2013.

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