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Return Persistence in the Indian Real Estate Market

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Author Info

  • Sanjay Rajagopal

    ()
    (DBA, Associate Professor of Finance, Western Carolina University; 1 University Drive, 122B Forsyth Building, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723)

  • Patrick Hays

    (PhD, Professor Emeritus, Western Carolina University)

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    Abstract

    Over the last decade, numerous factors including robust economic growth, population pressure, and the mounting need for office space among growth sectors such as information technology have placed significant upward pressure on Indian realty prices. The easing of government restrictions on foreign investments and venture capital into Indian real estate have provided an additional fillip to the real estate market in the country, and the confluence of such factors appears to have contributed to a speculative bubble in Indian real estate equities in the latter part of the decade. By using this bubble period as a case study, we test for the existence of long memory among real estate equities. For the January 2006-December 2008 period, we employ three self-affine fractal analysis techniques (classical rescaled range, roughness-length, and the variogram/structure function methods) to estimate the Hurst exponent, and find significant evidence of long memory in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Realty Index. Return persistence is further confirmed by the more powerful Lo¡¦s modified rescaled range analysis (MRSA), which is robust to short-term dependence. In addition to potential regulatory policy implications for this emerging market, our results have ramifications for modeling and forecasting returns, as well as for technical trading rules.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Asian Real Estate Society in its journal International Real Estate Review.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 283-305

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    Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:15:n:03:2012:p:283-305

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    Postal: Asia Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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    Web page: http://www.asres.org/

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    Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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    Related research

    Keywords: Fractal analysis; Long-Memory; Return persistence; Market efficiency; Indian Real Estate; Real Estate bubbles;

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    References

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    1. Sadique, Shibley & Silvapulle, Param, 2001. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Returns: International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 59-67, January.
    2. Mulligan, Robert F., 2004. "Fractal analysis of highly volatile markets: an application to technology equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 155-179, February.
    3. Yiuman Tse, 1998. "Fractional cointegration tests with GARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 329-332.
    4. Kim Hiang Liow, 2006. "The Dynamics of Return Volatilty and Systematic Risk in International Real Estate Security Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 1-29, November.
    5. Rajesh Chakrabarti & William Megginson & Pradeep K. Yadav, 2008. "Corporate Governance in India," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 20(1), pages 59-72.
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    7. Thomas Lux, 1996. "Long-term stochastic dependence in financial prices: evidence from the German stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(11), pages 701-706.
    8. Kim Liow, 2009. "Long-term Memory in Volatility: Some Evidence from International Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 415-438, November.
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    11. Robert T. Kleiman & James E. Payne & Anandi P. Sahu, 2002. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 279-298.
    12. Brent W. Ambrose & Esther Ancel & Mark D. Griffiths, 1992. "The Fractal Structure of Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: The Search for Evidence of Market Segmentation and Nonlinear Dependency," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-54.
    13. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Daouk, Hazem & Welker, Michael, 2003. "The World Price of Earnings Opacity," Working Papers 127185, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    14. Olan Henry, 2002. "Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 725-729.
    15. Dicle, Mehmet F. & Beyhan, Aydin & Yao, Lee J., 2010. "Market efficiency and international diversification: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 313-339, April.
    16. Johansen, Anders, 2004. "Origin of crashes in three US stock markets: shocks and bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(1), pages 135-142.
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