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When Micro Prudence Increases Macro Risk: The Destabilizing Effects of Financial Innovation, Leverage, and Diversification

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  • Fulvio Corsi

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Università Ca’ Foscari, Venice, Italy and City University of London, United Kingdom)

  • Stefano Marmi

    (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy)

  • Fabrizio Lillo

    (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy)

Abstract

By exploiting basic common practice accounting and risk-management rules, we propose a simple analytical dynamical model to investigate the effects of microprudential changes on macroprudential outcomes. Specifically, we study the consequence of the introduction of a financial innovation that allows reducing the cost of portfolio diversification in a financial system populated by financial institutions having capital requirements in the form of Value at Risk (VaR) constraint and following standard mark-to-market and risk-management rules. We provide a full analytical quantification of the multivariate feedback effects between investment prices and bank behavior induced by portfolio rebalancing in presence of asset illiquidity and show how changes in the constraints of the bank portfolio optimization endogenously drive the dynamics of the balance sheet aggregate of financial institutions and, thereby, the availability of bank liquidity to the economic system and systemic risk. The model shows that when financial innovation reduces the cost of diversification below a given threshold, the strength (because of higher leverage) and coordination (because of similarity of bank portfolios) of feedback effects increase, triggering a transition from a stationary dynamics of price returns to a nonstationary one characterized by steep growths (bubbles) and plunges (bursts) of market prices.

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  • Fulvio Corsi & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2016. "When Micro Prudence Increases Macro Risk: The Destabilizing Effects of Financial Innovation, Leverage, and Diversification," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1073-1088, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:64:y:2016:i:5:p:1073-1088
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2015.1464
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    3. Poledna, Sebastian & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Caccioli, Fabio & Thurner, Stefan, 2021. "Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
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    5. Andrea Flori & Fabrizio Lillo & Fabio Pammolli & Alessandro Spelta, 2021. "Better to stay apart: asset commonality, bipartite network centrality, and investment strategies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 177-213, April.
    6. Yichen Zhou & Honggang Li, 2019. "Asset diversification and systemic risk in the financial system," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(2), pages 247-272, June.
    7. Corsi, Fulvio & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide & Trapin, Luca, 2018. "Measuring the propagation of financial distress with Granger-causality tail risk networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
    8. Patel, Pankaj C. & Ojha, Divesh & Naskar, Shankar, 2022. "The effect of firm efficiency on firm performance: Evidence from the Domestic Production Activities Deduction Act," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    9. Zhu, Xuening & Wang, Weining & Wang, Hansheng & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2019. "Network quantile autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 345-358.
    10. Piero Mazzarisi & Fabrizio Lillo & Stefano Marmi, 2018. "When panic makes you blind: a chaotic route to systemic risk," Papers 1805.00785, arXiv.org.
    11. Michel Dacorogna & Marc Busse, 2017. "The Price of Being a Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI)," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 611-616, December.
    12. Stanislao Gualdi & Giulio Cimini & Kevin Primicerio & Riccardo Di Clemente & Damien Challet, 2016. "Statistically validated network of portfolio overlaps and systemic risk," Post-Print hal-01705092, HAL.
    13. Barnett, William A. & Wang, Xue & Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Hierarchical contagions in the interdependent financial network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    14. Lin, Li & Guo, Xin-Yu, 2019. "Identifying fragility for the stock market: Perspective from the portfolio overlaps network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 132-151.
    15. Fabrizio Lillo & Giulia Livieri & Stefano Marmi & Anton Solomko & Sandro Vaienti, 2023. "Unimodal Maps Perturbed by Heteroscedastic Noise: An Application to a Financial Systems," Post-Print hal-04389232, HAL.
    16. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    17. Mazzarisi, Piero & Lillo, Fabrizio & Marmi, Stefano, 2019. "When panic makes you blind: A chaotic route to systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 176-199.
    18. Duc Thi Luu, 2022. "Portfolio Correlations in the Bank-Firm Credit Market of Japan," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 529-569, August.
    19. Andreas Mühlbacher & Thomas Guhr, 2018. "Extreme Portfolio Loss Correlations in Credit Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-25, July.
    20. Lillo, Fabrizio & Livieri, Giulia & Marmi, Stefano & Solomko, Anton & Vaienti, Sandro, 2023. "Analysis of bank leverage via dynamical systems and deep neural networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119917, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Sachapon Tungsong & Fabio Caccioli & Tomaso Aste, 2017. "Relation between regional uncertainty spillovers in the global banking system," Papers 1702.05944, arXiv.org.
    22. Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Diego Garlaschelli, 2018. "Reconstruction methods for networks: the case of economic and financial systems," Papers 1806.06941, arXiv.org.
    23. Livieri, Giulia & Lillo, Fabrizio & Marmi, Stefano & Solomko, Anton & Vaienti, Sandro, 2023. "Unimodal maps perturbed by heteroscedastic noise: an application to a financial systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Shan Lu & Jichang Zhao & Huiwen Wang, 2019. "The emergence of critical stocks in market crash," Papers 1908.07244, arXiv.org.
    25. Fabrizio Lillo & Giulia Livieri & Stefano Marmi & Anton Solomko & Sandro Vaienti, 2021. "Analysis of bank leverage via dynamical systems and deep neural networks," Papers 2104.04960, arXiv.org.

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