IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v61y2015i3p649-664.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Speculation Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-Jane Liu

    (Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

  • Zheng Zhang

    (Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

  • Longkai Zhao

    (Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that speculative activities can be contagious and spill over across markets. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that during China's warrants bubble period, speculative activities in the warrants market grabbed investors' attention and caused them to trade more speculatively in the underlying stocks. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that turnover and return volatility of the underlying stocks are positively associated with the warrants' unexpected turnover and price deviation from their fundamental values during the previous day, controlling for information-driven trading and hedging motives, and that such a spillover effect is more pronounced when warrants attract more investor attention.Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1914 . This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance .

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Jane Liu & Zheng Zhang & Longkai Zhao, 2015. "Speculation Spillovers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(3), pages 649-664, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:61:y:2015:i:3:p:649-664
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1914
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1914
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1914?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    2. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    3. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    4. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-872, August.
    5. Young-Hye Cho & Robert F. Engle, 1999. "Modeling the Impacts of Market Activity on Bid-Ask Spreads in the Option Market," NBER Working Papers 7331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Harrison Hong & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1073-1117, June.
    7. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Back, Kerry, 1993. "Asymmetric Information and Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 435-472.
    9. Figlewski, Stephen, 1989. " Options Arbitrage in Imperfect Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1289-1311, December.
    10. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2723-2753, October.
    11. Richard D. F. Harris & Jian Shen, 2003. "Robust estimation of the optimal hedge ratio," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 799-816, August.
    12. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    13. Hong, Harrison & Yu, Jialin, 2009. "Gone fishin': Seasonality in trading activity and asset prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 672-702, November.
    14. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2003. "Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 337-386, December.
    15. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, June.
    16. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    17. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    18. Lesmond, David A & Ogden, Joseph P & Trzcinka, Charles A, 1999. "A New Estimate of Transaction Costs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1113-1141.
    19. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," Working Papers 1398, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    20. Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Investor attention, overconfidence and category learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 563-602, June.
    21. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2007. "Disagreement and the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 109-128, Spring.
    22. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    23. Seasholes, Mark S. & Wu, Guojun, 2007. "Predictable behavior, profits, and attention," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 590-610, December.
    24. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    25. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    26. Michael W. Brandt & Alon Brav & John R. Graham & Alok Kumar, 2010. "The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Time Trend or Speculative Episodes?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 863-899, February.
    27. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32, January.
    28. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948, November.
    29. Stefano Dellavigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 709-749, April.
    30. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    31. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Holden, Craig W. & Trzcinka, Charles A., 2009. "Do liquidity measures measure liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 153-181, May.
    32. Steven Huddart & Mark Lang & Michelle H. Yetman, 2009. "Volume and Price Patterns Around a Stock's 52-Week Highs and Lows: Theory and Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 16-31, January.
    33. David Hirshleifer & Sonya Seongyeon Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2009. "Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2325, October.
    34. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    35. Gur Huberman & Tomer Regev, 2001. "Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 387-396, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Conghui & Lin, Ji-Chai & Liu, Yu-Jane, 2022. "What are the benefits of attracting gambling investors? Evidence from stock splits in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Yintian Wang & Guofu Zhou & Yingzi Zhu, 2021. "The Chinese warrant bubble: A fundamental analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, January.
    3. Chen, Haiqiang & Gu, Ming & Ni, Bo, 2023. "How price limit affects the market efficiency in a short-sale constrained market? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 22-39.
    4. Chan, Kalok & Wang, Baolian & Yang, Zhishu, 2019. "Why investors do not buy cheaper securities: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 59-76.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    2. Lin, Mei-Chen & Wu, Chu-Hua & Chiang, Ming-Ti, 2014. "Investor attention and information diffusion from analyst coverage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 235-246.
    3. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    4. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Li, Xiao & Pattnaik, Debidutta & Sharma, Anuj, 2022. "Foundations and research clusters in investor attention: Evidence from bibliometric and topic modelling analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 511-529.
    6. Zhong, Angel & Chai, Daniel & Li, Bob & Chiah, Mardy, 2018. "Volume shocks and stock returns: An alternative test," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Chunxin Jia & Yaping Wang & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Social Trust and Differential Reactions of Local and Foreign Investors to Public News," NBER Working Papers 21075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lee, Kuan-Hui & Wang, Shu-Feng, 2023. "Allocation of attention and the delayed reaction of stock returns to liquidity shock: Global evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 421-444.
    9. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2007. "Disagreement and the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 109-128, Spring.
    10. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C., 2016. "Judging a Book by Its Cover: Analysts and Attention-Driven Price Patterns in China’s IPO Market," Stockholm School of Economics Asia Working Paper Series 2016-39, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm China Economic Research Institute.
    11. Eom, Yunsung, 2021. "Kimchi premium and speculative trading in bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    12. Hillert, Alexander & Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian, 2018. "Journalist disagreement," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-76.
    13. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    14. Penasse, J.N.G. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Bubbles and Trading Frenzies : Evidence from the Art Market," Other publications TiSEM bf0d8984-df7f-4f02-afc7-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cameron & Zhu, Ning, 2021. "Extrapolative bubbles and trading volume," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118887, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Jose A. Scheinkman, 2013. "Speculation, Trading and Bubbles Third Annual Arrow Lecture," Working Papers 1458, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    17. Alejandro Bernales & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2023. "Effects of Information Overload on Financial Markets: How Much Is Too Much?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1372, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    19. Chakrabarty, Bidisha & Moulton, Pamela C., 2012. "Earnings announcements and attention constraints: The role of market design," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 612-634.
    20. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cheng & Zhu, Ning, 2019. "Price and volume dynamics in bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102057, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:61:y:2015:i:3:p:649-664. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.