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New York Power Authority Uses Decision Analysis to Schedule Refueling of Its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis J. Dunning

    (New York Power Authority, 123 Main Street, White Plains, New York 10601)

  • Steve Lockfort

    (New York Power Authority)

  • Quentin E. Ross

    (New York Power Authority)

  • Phillip C. Beccue

    (Amgen Inc., One Amgen Center Drive, Thousand Oaks, California 91320-1789)

  • Jeffrey S. Stonebraker

    (Bayer Corporation, 4101 Research Commons, 79 T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709-3387)

Abstract

The New York Power Authority (NYPA) wanted to develop a 10-year schedule for refueling its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant (IP3) that balanced fish protection, which occurs when IP3 is shut down for refueling, and the costs of buying and loading fuel. We developed a decision analysis model to compare alternative strategies for refueling. It explicitly considered key uncertainties associated with future operation: how well IP3 operates, how long it takes to refuel, and when New York State is likely to deregulate the electric utility industry. The NYPA decision makers used the model to reinforce their choice of a refueling strategy. They were not surprised that more fish protection occurred with strategies that restricted the starting date for refueling to the third week in May, rather than allowing the starting date to float throughout the period from May through August. However, the decision makers were surprised that the more restrictive strategies also resulted in lower costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis J. Dunning & Steve Lockfort & Quentin E. Ross & Phillip C. Beccue & Jeffrey S. Stonebraker, 2001. "New York Power Authority Uses Decision Analysis to Schedule Refueling of Its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(5), pages 121-135, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:31:y:2001:i:5:p:121-135
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.31.5.121.9658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fourcade, Fabrice & Johnson, Ellis & Bara, Mourad & Cortey-Dumont, Philippe, 1997. "Optimizing nuclear power plant refueling with mixed-integer programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 269-280, March.
    2. Carl S. Spetzler & Carl-Axel S. Staël Von Holstein, 1975. "Exceptional Paper--Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 340-358, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Gilberto Montibeller, 2015. "Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank‐Based Method," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1317-1335, July.
    2. Donald L. Keefer & Craig W. Kirkwood & James L. Corner, 2004. "Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 4-22, March.
    3. Ben Ewing & Erin Baker, 2009. "Development of a Green Building Decision Support Tool: A Collaborative Process," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 172-185, September.
    4. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling: An update," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2604-2622.

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