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Regional Growth, Debt Thresholds and Subnational Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Alfonso Mendoza-Velázquez

    (Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla, México)

  • Heidi J. Smith

    (Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de México, México)

  • Diego Mendoza-Martínez

    (The University of Chicago, USA)

Abstract

Objetivo: Examinar el nexo entre la sustentabilidad de la deuda subnacional y el crecimiento regional. Métodos: El estudio emplea paneles dinámicos (Arellano-Bond) y modelos de curvatura (Seo-Shin) para estimar umbrales de deuda. Resultados: Encontramos una asociación positiva entre la deuda subnacional y el crecimiento del PIB regional que difiere por tipo de deuda. La arquitectura de las intergubernamentales fiscales del sistema fiscal federal en México genera umbrales menores respecto a los nacionales. Recomendaciones: Las reglas fiscales, regulatorias y normativas sobre la deuda bancaria deberían proveer incentivos para alentar el crecimiento regional. Limitaciones: Los resultados de la muestra pequeña en este estudio son una primera aproximación al nexo entre deuda y crecimiento. La falta de datos actualizados y consistentes para horizontes de tiempo largos limita la generalización de los resultados. Originalidad: El estudio ayuda a comprender el efecto de la deuda subnacional sobre el crecimiento del PIB regional en sistemas fiscales centralizados y el impacto diferencial por tipo de endeudamiento. Conclusiones: Modelos fiscales centralizados con autonomía limitada pueden generar problemas de presupuestos suaves e crear ineficiencias en la administración financiera.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso Mendoza-Velázquez & Heidi J. Smith & Diego Mendoza-Martínez, 2023. "Regional Growth, Debt Thresholds and Subnational Sustainability," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(2), pages 1-23, Abril - J.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:18:y:2023:i:2:p:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deuda de gobiernos locales; mercados de capital subnacional; deuda subnacional; umbrales de crecimiento; límites de endeudamiento;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

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