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Croissance et Soutenabilité de la Dette Extérieure Tunisienne pour la Période 1970-2012 : Une Analyse Dynamique
[Growth and Sustainability of Tunisian External Debt for the Period 1970-2012: A Dynamic Analysis]

Author

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  • Slimani, Slah
  • Bakari, Sayef
  • Othmani, Abdelhafidh

Abstract

Through this paper, we assess the sustainability of Tunisian external debt and its effect on the growth of the country. Based on two main approaches, namely the actuarial approach and the accounting approach, we check whether Tunisia was able to support its external debt during the period 1970-2012, while ensuring the balance of its economic fundamentals And its financial indicators. At a second level, we evaluate, empirically, the effects of foreign debt on the economic growth of the country in order to validate the thesis of over indebtedness for the case of Tunisia. Finally, we calculate, under a quadratic approach, the optimal sustainable external debt threshold that ensures regular economic growth and the sustainability of the country's fiscal policy. According to the actuarial method based on tests of stationarity and cointegration, it was not possible to verify, absolutely, the sustainability of the external debt during the period studied. Some tests verify sustainability, others have given contradictory results. The accounting method shows that this debt was no longer sustainable except for a few years, namely, 1972, 1974, 1996. This result reflects Tunisia's current situation of over-indebtedness, and the problem of external debt for Growth and economic performance. After calculating the external debt threshold, it seems that 51% is the sustainable threshold that allows maximum economic growth. This threshold of external debt stock can only be beneficial to the Tunisian economy if it is allocated to profitable investments that generate wealth and capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Slimani, Slah & Bakari, Sayef & Othmani, Abdelhafidh, 2015. "Croissance et Soutenabilité de la Dette Extérieure Tunisienne pour la Période 1970-2012 : Une Analyse Dynamique [Growth and Sustainability of Tunisian External Debt for the Period 1970-2012: A Dyna," MPRA Paper 80954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80954
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    Cited by:

    1. Bakari, Sayef & El Weriemmi, Malek, 2022. "Causality between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 113079, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Sustainability; External Debt; Dynamic Analysis; Tunisia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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